Today’s Climate Prediction Center monthly ENSO forecast discussion bids a fond farewell to La Niña, and illustrates the difficulty of figuring out what will happen next:
A majority of the recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during June – August 2008 (Fig. 5). During the second half of the year, the majority of models reflect ENSO-neutral conditions (-0.5 to 0.5 in the Niño-3.4 region). However, there is considerable uncertainty during this period as some models suggest the possible development of El Niño while others show a re-development of La Niña.