Tom Beal has a story in the Arizona Daily Star that captures a couple of related realities one finds these days in the western water community.
One is that climate change is the real deal. It’s easy to go on quibbling about the attribution problem, but the Colorado River is mostly drier these days than it used to be. That’s the reality that water managers are grappling with, and it’s forcing them to confront the second reality: that stationarity – the idea that past is reasonable prologue – is fork-stuck-in-it-dead:
Stationarity, said U.S. Geological Survey senior scientist Julio Betancourt, allows you to predict future natural events “within a fluctuating but well-defined variability.”That notion died, he said, with the realization that climate change makes the future unpredictable.Sharon Megdal, who moderated the panel on the state’s water future, said she liked Yogi Berra’s definition: “The future ain’t what it used to be.”