Stuff I wrote elsewhere: forecasting is hard, especially about the monsoon
Posted on | June 19, 2012 | 1 Comment
In the morning paper, I pine over our elusive monsoon forecast:
I know this is the time you would really like a forecast. You would really like to know when New Mexico’s summer rains will finally get here, and whether we will have a wet monsoon season.
Sorry. Can’t help. Believe me, I’d like to. We are so far into drought debt that it will take an extra-wet monsoon to get us out, but the forecasters just don’t have much to say about what we can expect.
update: I realized after seeing the tweetage that my blog excerpt here left out the best bit:
What scientists are finding as they study the monsoon, Gutzler said, is that the forecast problem is tough to crack. “More understanding,” he said, “leads to a deeper appreciation of uncertainty.”
Related posts:
- Monsoon: Cause for Optimism
- It’s a Monsoon!
- Watching for the Monsoon
- Is India’s Monsoon Declining?
- More Stuff I Wrote Elsewhere
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June 19th, 2012 @ 2:26 pm
“More understanding,” he said, “leads to a deeper appreciation of uncertainty.”
The same could be said for all wisdom and insights.