The bonus water of 2010-11 on the Colorado River, when Lake Mead jumped nearly 50 feet in surface elevation, is looking more and more like an anomaly. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center issued its January forecast this week, with early snowpack pointing to a mid-point forecast of 61 percent of average flow into Lake Powell. It looks like it’s only about a 15 percent chance of enough snow between now and meltoff to get up to an average year.

Here’s a look at soil moisture then and now: December 2011 (coming off that unusually wet year) and now:

Colorado River Basin soil moisture