As California grapples with drought, it’s a good time to revisit Milly et al.’s 2008 Science paper Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? I’m not statistician enough to answer the question posed by the post’s title, but it’s at least worth considering, as part of the state’s policy responses to this drought on multiple time scales (both direct response this year and long term changes in response) whether we’re in a different climatological world, and what sort of response might be justified as a result. (pdf on Julio Betancourt’s site)
The world today faces the enormous, dual challenges of renewing its decaying water infrastructure and building new water infrastructure. Now is an opportune moment to update the analytic strategies used for planning such grand investments under an uncertain and changing climate.