Southwest monsoon!

Sorry, that was a clickbait headline. Let me walk it back: Odds shifted slightly toward a wetter Southwest monsoon this summer!

Summer seasonal outlook

Summer seasonal outlook

 
The usual forecast explainer: this shifts the odds from the climatological one-in-three-years-is-wet statistical binning to a 33-40 percent chance of wet in the light green area, upwards of 40 percent in the dark green area.

That translates to a seasonal forecast of continued drought, but some improvement, across the Colorado River Basin:

Seasonal drought outlook

Seasonal drought outlook