If you look at the National Hurricane Center’s latest track for Lane, it looks like the moisture is headed our way here in New Mexico by some time next week. So far, though, the forecasters at the local National Weather Service office don’t think it’ll get here: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER A RIDGE OF …
In the comments here a while back, Benny Peiser, publisher of the invaluable CCNet electronic newsletter, said this: John As you know, CCNet publishes *both* sides in the numerous climate change debates. It was with that in mind that I read Benny’s latest CCNet missive: “MORE TROUBLE FOR IPCC AS SCIENTISTS PREDICT SOLAR DOWNTURN & …
There’s been an interesting discussion in the drought community about the use of the weekly drought monitor for making determinations about who’s entitled to drought benefits. The problem is that the monitor’s maps are a subject blend of the best judgment of a community of people about drought conditions, intended as an informational tool. When …
And thus it begins: I am El Niño! All other tropical storms must bow before El Niño! Yo soy El Niño! For those of you who don’t “habla Español”, El Niño is Spanish for.. The Niño! To any of you hurricanes who are listening, step on up! Because nobody can take El Niño! I challenge …
As soon as you cherrypick to support your side of the argument, you lose any moral authority to accuse the other guys of impropriety when they do it. See Roger Pielke Jr.’s post today: Such tactics have been criticized as cherrypicking and misrepresentation by critics of the use of science by those on the political …
In the climate change debate, both sides have an incentive to scientize – to argue about the science rather than the resulting value/political/policy propositions. Those who advocate greenhouse gas reductions believe that the science is clear and compels a particular policy response. Those who oppose greenhouse gas reductions have found great success by arguing over …
I’ve said before that Kelly Redmond is something of a national treasure. This interview by Kit Stolz is a good reminder of why. In an age of scientific generalization, Kelly, deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center, is the quintessential generalist in a couple of different ways. First, he’s conversant with all the key …
A friend on the opposite part of the planet sends along this, and wonders whether it’s an outlier or a harbinger of bad ski seasons to come: The non-profit group that runs southern Tasmania’s ski-tows is facing a loss of thousands of dollars after a snow-free winter. With the season due to end in three …
I have tried several times, with varying degrees of success, to tackle the “consensus ain’t science” shibboleth. (See especially here and the comments here). Andrew Dessler recently took an excellent stab at this in a couple of posts: see here and here. Might a “consensus” position be wrong? Of course. All knowledge is provisional and …
The Climate Prediction Center’s latest ENSO outlook, issued yesterday, ups the odds for a weak El Niño by the end of the year. Last month, they put the odds at 50-50. Yesterday, they said a weak El Niño is “likely” by the end of the year. Here in New Mexico, that tips the odds wet. …