We’re on the cusp of the normal start of the monsoons here (July 7 is the average onset date for Albuquerque), but it’s hot as hell and dry and there’s no monsoon in sight.
We had a bit of a false start two weeks ago with a slug of moisture and some big thunderstorms, but things have dried out, with a big ridge of high pressure blocking the moisture from the south that we need to get the summer storms rolling. A couple of things I watch: Rain in Mexico. Watch for the storms to start firing up over the Sierra Madre Occidental, creeping north up Mexico’s central mountains. You can see that as of this writing they’re still stuck quite far south. The other thing to keep your eye on is the dewpoint. It really needs to settle in above 50 – the higher the better. I also keep an eye on Tucson, both because it’s a harbinger for us (usually they get monsoons first) and because I have friends down there who are as fascinated by the monsoons as I am.