Interesting comment from Kevin Vranes that’s worth pulling out onto the front page. The question is whether there’s really an “emerging consensus” on the hurricane-global warming link. Kevin’s privy to discussion not visible to us plebes:
I still have to say that after watching the emails fly on the tropical cyclones email list over the past two weeks, a list that contains almost everybody of importance working on tropical cyclones in the world and to which Holland, Curry and Webster have also been posting in the past two weeks, anybody would be very hard pressed to say that an “emerging consensus” exists amongst that group of experts. Mostly what I’ve seen are very reasonable, very well-considered emails poking major holes in the data Webster used, among other aspects to the “debate.”
I’ll continue to maintain that while it is very reasonable to infer that increased global T –> stronger hurricanes, “reasonable” means nothing in systems that can be as counter-intuitive as climate/weather.
I continue to wonder what the hurry is. Science is hard, sometimes it takes a while to figure stuff out, and I’m at a bit of a loss to imagine what difference it makes, in terms of the actions we might take, whether we know the answer to this question now, or next year, or in 2011.