Prediction Markets

A smart friend recently commented thus: “Gambling is just a way to redistribute resources from the dumber to the smarter.”

In that regard, it’s a good thing I’m only playing Intrade with play money.  Intrade is the betting-prediction market that’s all the rage among the Wisdom of Crowds Crowd, and I’ve been using it over the last month to avoid having to actually listen to pundits or read polls. The assumption is that the bettors are doing all of that for me, and are usefully aggregating the results into a single number.

Shortly before Iowa, I noticed that you can open up an account with $5,000 in play money. I’ve been making modest bets thus far, which is a good thing. So far I’m down $365, and it’s looking like my play for Clinton in South Carolina is ill-timed.

The message, of course, is that my enthusiasm for the market is well placed. Thus far it has proven far more intelligent than my own intuitions.