1. Best electoral analysis out there. I read the blog daily, even if I have no idea what he’s talking about when he explains how he gets his results.

  2. The trick to these projections is partly in the projections themselves but more so in the errors in the projections. One useful question is “How likely is it that the projections can change by 30 electoral votes in the presence of expected events?” This is similar to trying to predict a change in strategy by a baseball team from large ball to small ball and the success of the new strategy against the teams opponents.

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