The June 1 Colorado Basin forecasts are out, and, as expected, there’s been no miracle. The inflow into Lake Powell looks pretty much exactly like it did a month ago, minus the chance of a miraculous late snow rescue or the flip side chance of some sort of terrible collapse:
The blue bar is average, the red dots show the forecast month by month, with the June 1 forecast rightmost. The line and red triangles are the 90 and 10 percent levels – the chance, essentially, that it will suddenly get a whole lot wetter or drier than the median forecast.
The rising blue line is average inflow, and the green line below it is this year’s actual. You can see that, as of June 1, inflow to Powell is about 2 million acre feet below average. That is an awful lot of water. Just a reminder that, including this year, 9 of the last 11 years have been below average on the Colorado.