In the midst of reading Nate Silver’s book, I felt like I ought to say something nuanced about the seasonal forecast that came out this morning:
In this morning’s briefing, the forecasters were careful to explain that they’re not making predictions here, but rather forecasting odds – “probabilistic” in the jargon: “These impacts are not guaranteed,” Halpert said. But the forecasts do provide useful information that we can combine here in New Mexico with what we know with certainty about the conditions on the ground to begin to get a clearer picture of the drought risk we face.
And those things we know include the fact that our reservoirs are mostly empty (pdf) and the soil moisture is not very moist. So, if I may indulge in a bit of value-laden reportage, a pretty crappy forecast indeed.
Has anthropogenic forcing gotten far enough ahead of ocean heat content such that an increasing heat flux into the oceans is resulting in a persistent La Nina state? We live in interesting times.