Via Allen Best, Brad Udall’s critically important comments at last week’s Getches-Wilkinson Colorado River conference:
Within this basin, we can and have worked together to deal with a really sticky, difficult issue like climate change, to inform decision-making given the right partners, including the federal government at the table. Point two is our current climate trajectory is beyond awful, and that makes our challenge even worse.
My mind is twisted around. He asserts that the Upper Basin states have delivered 86 MAF over the last 10 years. From the Lee’s Ferry gage 09380000 mean cfs over 10 years converted to AF/yr using 723.968, that’s about what I get. Have they and I calculated wrong? Aren’t they required to deliver 75 MAF/10 years. And they have? Mead and Powell were full in 2000. Have the Lower Basin states been taking more than their share? Doesn’t seem like Mexico’s share accounts for draining two lakes. Please set me straight. mccarp46@gmail.com.
Occurred to me that in delivering its required allotment at Lee Ferry, the Upper Basin drained Powell plus at times shifted 500,000 AF from Flaming Gorge to Powell. In fairness, the Upper Basin made it work for 80 years by not taking their share and didn’t get any remuneration for that. The river was over allocated from the beginning and has seldom been close to 16.5 MAF. Now maybe 12 MAF and headed for 10 MAF. The Upper Basin is going to have to share in the reduction. Am I correct in understanding that the gage just upstream from Lake Powell measures stage but not discharge? How about getting someone out there to make a rating curve or move upstream to a site where discharge can be determined. Divide it up based on the average inflow to Powell for the previous 3 years according to the compact but with 5% going into storage in Powell and Mead, each, with Powell evaporation subtracted from Upper Basin allocation and Mead evaporation subtracted from Lower Basin.
Well I don’t know about all of this. All I can say is I was in the Aspen area last weekend. It rained significantly every day. There was still quite a lot of snow on the peaks and the rivers were raging on both sides of the Continental Divide.
There can’t be such a thing as global warming because 1 it got cold last night or 2 it got cold last winter. There can’t be such a thing as drought because it rained recently. Mean temp.; mean rainfall.
Bill – Surely you’re a better scientist than to look around and say, “Yeah, but it’s raining!” Flows right now on the Roaring Fork, 2,490 cfs, are 65 percent of median for this date. Total flow volume as the runoff tails off is looking like it’ll finish up at 62 percent of median.