More on 2026 US wheat acreage

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Monochrome line chart of U.S. planted acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat, 1919-2026. Wheat is the solid black line and declines over the long run to about 43.8 million acres in 2026; soybeans, shown as a dotted gray line, rise to about 84.7 million acres; corn, shown as a dashed light-gray line, remains highest at about 95.3 million acres.

The rise of soy.

It’s always more interesting than I think!

After this morning’s quickie “wheat acreage lowest since 1919” post, I dusted off my USDA NASS data skills (I used to work with that data a lot, but it’s been ages).

Why 1919?

1919, it turns out, was when USDA’s US wheat acreage record starts! So really what we’re saying is “the lowest acreage as far back as the data goes.” Wheat’s been in a long decline since the early ’80s.

What was happening in 1919?

US wheat acreage exploded during WWI because Europeans were using their farmland to kill one another rather than grow food, and we stepped in to fill the gap.

2026 is stuff happening at the margin

While “lowest since 1919” sounds dramatic (hence my clickbaity morning post), in fact the squiggles on the graph show stuff happening at the margin: wheat down a little bit, but enough for the clickbait, corn also down a little but, soy up a little bit.