ECMWF Four Corners December-January-February forecast. Map ECMWF->Fleck->Codex
The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts got some ink/bits for their strong forecast for a wet winter in California (h/t Daniel Swain), but what do they say for us?
Sorry for the blocky look, but when you drill down, the map gets pretty coarse – these are big pixels. But the headline is that the ECMWF outlook is wet for Arizona, but not much El Niño-bullish for the headwaters of the Rio Grande and the Colorado.
We, in Tucson, keep getting “55%” predictions and seldom rain. The eastern part of the basin gets hammered, and the western part gets nothing, usually, and some rain on occasion. I think that’s why we have ironwood trees pretty much to the exclusion of the rest of the basin. My point is: don’t be jealous of something that isn’t, ie., a really nice monsoon. Still, 2 months to go.