By Eric Kuhn, John Fleck, and Jack Schmidt On January 16th, the Bureau of Reclamation released the January 2025 24-Month Study. Based on the January 1st runoff forecast into Lake Powell, the projected “most probable” annual release from Glen Canyon Dam for Water Year 2026 is now 7.48 maf. This needs to be taken as …
By John Fleck and Jack Schmidt Preliminary year-end Colorado River numbers are stark. Total basin-wide storage for the last two years has stabilized, oscillating between 30 and 27 maf (million acre-feet), where storage sits at the start of 2025[1]. That is lower than any sustained period since the River’s reservoirs were built (Fig. 1). Stable …
Continue reading ‘Stable on the Colorado River: When “good” is not good enough’ »
Winters rights are no match for the current dysfunction of Colorado River Basin governance. Shannon Mullane at the Colorado Sun has been on this, and last week had some useful details: Advocates of a deal to secure reliable water for thousands of tribal members in Arizona raced to win Congressional approval until the final hours …
By Eric Kuhn and Jack Schmidt The press coverage of the December 2024 Colorado River Water Users Association (CRWUA) meeting mostly focused on the ongoing stalemate between representatives of the Upper and Lower Division States over their competing proposals for how the Colorado River Systems’ big reservoirs will be operated after the 2007 Interim Guidelines …
If traffic to this blog is an indicator, y’all are really interested in thoughtful independent analysis of the standard talking points in the Colorado River negotiations. Also, the work of my longtime collaborator Eric Kuhn (which is unsurprising, I’ve long been really interested in Eric’s work). Three of the four most-read Inkstain posts this year …
Continue reading ‘Inkstain 2024 – y’all really like Eric Kuhn’s writing’ »
I was talking to Eric Kuhn Thursday (write a book together – bonded for life) who pointed out that the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center has started running its models for 2025 runoff. They don’t look good. It’s way too early to think of this as a “forecast.” But they provide a feel for where …
Continue reading ‘Lousy start to the Colorado/Rio Grande 2024-25 snowpack season’ »
It’s that time of year when I’m looking for a storm a week to build a snowpack. More is better. Zero is not better.
Research comparing pedestrian behavior in Bryant Park and outside the Met, 1979-1980 versus 2008-2010: The biggest change in behavior was that lingering fell dramatically. The amount of time spent just hanging out dropped by about half across the measured locations. I personally am a fan of “lingering” and “just hanging out.” Via Tyler Cowen
One of the hopeful notes coming out of the recent Colorado River discussions is the way the operation of Glen Canyon Dam in a more flexible way, to accommodate a broader range of values, is back on the table. The USBR alternatives released ahead of this week’s Colorado River Water Users Association, while requiring some …
By Jack Schmidt | December 3, 2024 Drawdown of the Colorado River’s reservoirs now slightly exceeds the amount of gain that occurred during the 2024 snowmelt season. For the next four months until snowmelt begins again, the basin’s reservoirs will be drawing from the excess accumulated in 2023, demonstrating the immense challenge in balancing water …