Daniel Swain on the next wave of Four Corners storms expected this weekend (Halloween 2026): The fact that this pair of back-to-back extreme-to-record shattering rain events across the interior Southwest have occurred during the autumn during (one of the) strongest El Niño events on record is not a coincidence! Such events are known to be …
Updating my “drought and climate change” lecture each fall is a useful exercise – this year more useful than most. Much like the year itself, my slide deck is setting all time records for new data visualizations needed to make sense of the remarkable 2026. Update Great questions from the comments. (I love my commenters.) …
Continue reading ‘Making sense of the crazy outlier year of 2026’ »
Of possible relevance to the current bosque dieback in New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande? From PNAS: Predicting forest resilience requires knowing whether trees can physiologically acclimate to drought. Drawing on global in-situ field experiments, we find a pervasive lack of functional adjustment in forest trees. Trees maintain stable hydraulic and photosynthetic capacities, enabling maximum carbon …
Continue reading ‘The science of tree diebacks in drought’ »
It was 96F (35.5C) when I rode my bike home after class at 6:15 p.m. last night. “3.91 standard deviations above the long term record” is not terribly intuitive to me, the graphs above helped me visualize how extraordinarily unusual 2026 has been in Albuquerque. By all three normal measures – daily maximum, mean, …
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Near-extinct oryx are returning. Farms are prospering as irrigation water reaches fields for the first time in decades. Farmers are even nurturing new trees on their land. Once a byword for drought and famine, the African Sahel region on the southern flank of the Sahara Desert now has more water than it has for decades. …
Federal water managers yesterday (May 18, 2026) began pushing a pulse of water through New Mexico’s rapidly drying Middle Rio Grande to try to encourage the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow to spawn. From a note sent ’round to the Bureau’s water management list yesterday by Carolyn Donnelly, water operations supervisor for the bureau’s Albuquerque …
Continue reading ‘2026-05-19: Federal managers increase release for the silvery minnow’ »
Words fall short as we watch the West’s snowpack disappear under the glare of a heat wave so off-the-charts, so freakish, that I had to resort to some pretty extreme math to try to understand how freakishly off-the-charts this is. We’ve got more than a century of weather records in Albuquerque, with really good ones …
Continue reading ‘A Freakish Heat Wave – A Statistical Wonder’ »
Inspired by this morning’s Downtown Albuquerque News Climate and Transport Index (come for the bus boardings and river flow data, stay for the Shawarma restaurant news), I give you data, one of those “Science confirms the obvious, but with graphs!” things. The overnight lows were 2.5F higher than the recent average. I wonder if that …
The Western Water Assessment, a federally funded research and outreach group based at the University of Colorado, sent a note to its stakeholders yesterday informing us that the new administration’s plans to eliminate large swaths of federal climate spending include WWA’s primary funding source: We know that it can be hard to keep track of …
Continue reading ‘Wrecking Ball Report: Western Water Assessment’ »