stuff I wrote elsewhere: tree rings, climate change and our disappearing forests

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When I wrote The Tree Rings’ Tale, its organizational premise was that tree rings are storytellers.

And how.

Park Williams latest research, which I featured in this morning’s Albuquerque Journal, combines tree ring records for the southwestern United States with contemporary climate data, fire data, tree mortality data and future modeling results to tell a frankly stark story:

If climate trends follow even the most conservative projections from scientists who study the effects of rising greenhouse gases, the work by Williams and his colleagues suggests a warming climate will push the Southwest’s forests by the middle of the 21st century into a regime in which the worst tree-killing drought conditions of the last thousand years become the norm.

Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality, Williams et al., Nature Climate Change (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1693

bunk risk and the problem of debunking

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On the twitter this evening, I stumbled across a fascinating paper (pdf) from a couple of years ago by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler documenting problems that can ensue when journalists try to debunk bunk that has an ideological component:

Results indicate that corrections frequently fail to reduce misperceptions among the targeted ideological group. We also document several instances of a ‘‘back?re effect’’ in which corrections actually increase misperceptions among the group in question.

Given the amount of bunk loose in the wild, this sometimes feels to me like an intractable problem. When I tweeted the link, Nyhan helpfully pointed me to this (also pdf) which offers some science-based suggestions journalists might use to combat the problem. Among them, charts and graphs!

 

SHOUTING IN ALL CAPS ABOUT THE WEATHER

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As Sandy converges on our stark, inevitable fate, people outside the weather nerd community are being again confronted by our dark, uncomfortable question – why do the official forecasts always make it seem like they’re shouting? Why do the forecasters always write in all caps? There are times when this feels right:

FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE…NORTHEAST MARYLAND… NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS… IN DELAWARE…DELAWARE BEACHES…INLAND SUSSEX…KENT AND NEW CASTLE….

Other times, not so much:

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE RELATIVELY STRONG LATE OCTOBER SUN CONTINUES TO MODIFY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE QUITE NICELY. A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY NIGHT…RESULTING MAINLY IN A WIND SHIFT AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.

Kevin Drum explains the background behind the all caps tradition. (it apparently has something to do with Agenda 21 and the whole One World Govt. problem or something). Thanks to Kerry Jones at the NWS Albuquerque office for pointing me to this daring mixed-case experiment:

.SYNOPSIS…Several rounds of rain are expected over the next several days. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Sunday through the end of next week. Snow levels will climb above 5000 thousand feet by late tonight, so travel over the mountain passes should improve on Sunday. A break in the wet weather pattern may arrive next Friday or Saturday, but may not last long. The outlook for early November looks abnormally wet.

We’re rooting for you, Spokane!

 

 

Stuff I wrote elsewhere: more on the B61

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Forgot to blog earlier in the week, a frustratingly inconclusive newspaper piece on the reasons behind the rising cost of refurbishing the US stockpile of B61 bombs:

Is Sandia National Laboratories to blame for cost overruns in the multibillion-dollar effort to refurbish the U.S. arsenal of B61 nuclear bombs?

A December 2011 evaluation by the National Nuclear Security Administration, the federal agency that oversees Sandia’s work, suggests the answer is, at least in part, “yes.”

But experts say decisions made across the nuclear weapons enterprise seem also to have played a role, that there is blame to go around for a project that members of Congress say has increased from $4 billion to at least $8 billion in estimated cost.

 

Tarrant: much ado about nothing

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So what’s up with that full court PR madness from the folks in the Tarrant Regional Water District in Texas? Is the future of the many interstate water management compacts that govern water distribution among the western states really under threat. This may seem obscure, but if you follow water, you can’t help but have stumbled over the argument that, if the Supreme Court takes up the case in question, all the compacts will be out the window.

Not so much, writes Stephanie Ogburn after doing a bit of digging on the question:

According to Harris, of Western Resource Advocates, the Texas water district is looking for allies. Oliver’s strategy is to get Western water mavens worried enough to take up his cause.

“He’s going after again the water districts, states, anybody else that he thinks might be interested in siding with them if the Court picks up the case.”

Those groups could file friend of the court briefs on Tarrant’s behalf, says Harris.

“But honestly I think he’s making a mountain out of a molehill here.”

So there you go. Are we on the verge of water anarchy? Probably not.

(This thing’s been bouncing around out there, via Tarrant’s PR, and I haven’t had time to do the leg work. Journalistically, it’s a weak payoff to do the work to conclude something’s not really a story, and we owe Stephanie gratitude.)

Pat Mulroy on the value of water

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From a great Circle of Blue interview, Pat Mulroy of the Southern Nevada Water Authority has some great insights into how we value water, but also how we think about paying the resulting costs:

[W]e in the water business stand back, and we become amazed that somebody is willing to pay $US 80, $US 90, $US 100 for their cable bill, to pay that much for their cell phone bill, but they’re not willing to pay $14.90 for their water bill.

I recommend the full interview.

 

Oh Vegas: Ponzi Scheme at the Las Vegas Mob Experience?

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One might expect the Las Vegas mob experience to involve criminal activity. But the Las Vegas Mob Experience, a tourist trap?

Financing for the Las Vegas Mob Experience tourist attraction likely involved a “fraudulent transaction” and “the earmarks of a Ponzi scheme,” a court-appointed accountant has determined.

(With a hat tip to Tampa Bay Times reporter Craig Pittman’s Oh #Florida series. I’m thinking Vegas can compete.)

 

Saguaro, Ponderosa and regional climate

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Intriguing paper by Pierson and colleagues, looking at a big demographic survey of the great saguaro cactus:

Averaged across the region, saguaro regeneration rates were highest from 1780 to 1860, coincident with wet conditions and high Pinus ponderosa recruitment in the highlands. Milder and wetter winters and protection from livestock grazing likely promoted late 20th century regeneration surges at some sites. Predictions of saguaro population dynamics in the 21st century likely will be confounded by the saguaro’s episodic and asynchronous regeneration, continued urbanization, ongoing grass invasions and associated wildfires, and changing climate.