Water in the Desert

San Juan RiverWhen I write my “water in the desert” bits here or at work, I have this underlying image that motivates my thinking. It’s a childhood car camping vacation (one of many, the image is broad and generic). It is before the days of ubiquitous auto air conditioning. We’re driving across the beautiful deserts of the Four Corners, all hot and dusty. Every so often the thin ribbon of hot, shimmering asphalt drops into an oasis – a ribbon of cottonwood trees along some river.

That’s the image I had in mind when I tackled the issues surrounding the San Juan River in northwest New Mexico (see also the sidebar):

As New Mexicans bump up against their water limits, all eyes are on the San Juan River. Rising in the mountains of Southern Colorado and meandering through northwest New Mexico before joining the Colorado River, it is the closest thing we have in the state to an underused water resource.
# Santa Fe and Albuquerque are preparing to tap into it, via a tunnel that carries San Juan water beneath the Continental Divide to the state’s most populous region.

# Gallup and the water-short communities of the eastern Navajo Nation have set their sights on the San Juan to quench their thirst.

# The Navajo Nation is looking to the San Juan for water to meet the tribe’s water rights under federal laws that give Indians water to irrigate their reservations.

Bush on Greenhouse Gases

George Bush today reiterated his concerns about greenhouse gases:

And therefore, I remind those who share my concern about greenhouse gases that nuclear energy produces no greenhouse gases. If you are interested in cleaning up the air, then you ought to be an advocate for nuclear power. (Applause.) Without nuclear power here in the United States, there would be nearly 700 million additional tons of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere every year. There is no single solution to climate change, but there can be no solution without nuclear power.

Climate, Population, Darfur

Since Ban Ki Moon’s Washington Post op-ed, drought and Darfur seems to be on the agenda. Today, AP moved this feature, which seems to be getting widespread play:

Decades of drought helped trigger Darfur’s violence as rival groups fought over scarce water and arable land.

Now, experts fear the war and its refugee crisis are making the environment even worse, leaving the land increasingly uninhabitable and intensifying tensions with no end to the drought in sight.

Darfur’s tragedy could be repeated in much of North Africa and the Middle East, experts fear, because growing populations are straining a very limited water supply. Data show rainfall steadily declining in the region, possibly because of weather changes linked to global warming.

Second Flowering

On the heels of Europe’s remarkable summer of 2003, last autumn and winter were anomalously warm – as much as three standard deviations from normal, likely the warmest in 500 years, according to Luterbacher et. al in GRL. ((Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts, Luterbacher et al., GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L12704, doi:10.1029/2007GL029951, 2007)) The coolest (pardon the pun) part:

Phenological impacts related to this warmth included some plant species having a partial second flowering or extended flowering till the beginning of winter. Species that typically flower in early spring were found to have a distinct earlier flowering after winter 2007.

Ocean Variability in the Models

A group of climate modelers at Lawrence Livermore and elsewhere has taken issue (in the peer-reviewed literature) with an argument made by Roger Pielke Sr. and others that the models cannot adequately explain variability in ocean temperatures:

Using simulations of 20th century climate performed with 13 numerical models, we demonstrate that the apparent discrepancy between modeled and observed variability is largely explained by accounting for changes in observational coverage and instrumentation and by including the effects of volcanic eruptions. Our work casts doubt on two recent claims: (i) that the 0- to 700-m layer of the global ocean experienced a substantial OHC decrease over the 2003 to 2005 time period and (ii) that models cannot replicate such changes. Our analysis shows that the 2003–2005 cooling is largely an artifact of a systematic change in the observing system, with the deployment of Argo floats reducing a warm bias in the original observing system.

Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content, AchutaRao et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 10.1073/pnas.0611375104

Georgia Drought

Georgia drought map
Conditions in Georgia are not the worst you’ll find in the southeast, but they look plenty bad – so bad that in this age of cool URL’s, someone down there had the foresight to register GeorgiaDrought.org. From last week’s drought monitor:

In Alabama, 68 percent of the cotton crop, 48 percent of peanuts, and 78 percent of pastures are in poor or very poor condition, as are 60 percent of Florida peanuts and 35 percent of Georgia cotton. The proportion of pastures in poor or very poor condition ranges from almost half to more than three-quarters in six southeastern states (MS, KY, TN, FL, GA, and AL) while four additional adjacent states (WV, IN, SC, and NC) report at least one-quarter of pastures in poor or very poor condition.

NASA just published a telling vegetation map from last month.

What’s Up With The Birds?

The Audubon Society got a lot of media traction last week with its report on Birds in Decline. But Michael Tobis has sussed out a problem:

The number of species increasing in abundance exceeds the number in decline!!!

As Michael pointed out in a followup post:

Reason requires fair attention to evidence. It is necessary to resist pressures to skew what your data means, regardless of who butters your bread.