We’re standing on the brink of what ENSO forecasters call the spring barrier, the time of year when forecasting coming El Niño/La Niña conditions is hardest. But federal forecasters stuck their neck out today:
In a weekly update, scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center noted that as the 2006-2007 El Niño faded, surface and subsurface ocean temperatures have rapidly decreased. Recently, cooler-than-normal water temperatures have developed at the surface in the east-central equatorial Pacific, indicating a possible transition to La Niña conditions.
What’s interesting here is not necessarily the details. Folks in the community have been talking about this lately. What’s interesting is the significance of the overt act of issuing a news release with the NOAA administrator’s name attached.