Economist James Hamilton, in his recent NBER paper, argues for economists’ inherent inability to predict oil prices. Luckily, we have Ana Anaya:
“Gas prices will definitely go up, I have to tell you,” she said. “I’m sorry to say.”
(ht Somegye)
jfleck at inkstain
A few thoughts from John Fleck, a writer of journalism and other things, living in New Mexico
Note that gas != oil. Oil is internationally traded. Gas is a domestic consumer product SUBJECT TO TAXES and other localized costs.
Thus, both are probably right, i.e., we (all of us) can predict that gas prices will rise because taxes (gas tax, carbon tax, ALL taxes) are likely to rise.