As Lake Mead drops toward a Lower Colorado River Basin shortage declaration, a group of UC Santa Barbara students have done an excellent analysis (pdf of their summary results) that shows where the real vulnerabilities are. They conclude that Las Vegas and the municipal areas of Central Arizona are on solid ground. Arizona farmers won’t do so well, and Southern California has some potential problems at the margin:
Recreation at Lake Mead will take a hit, they found, as will power generation. Their full report is here.