Current predictions for the winter ahead suggest El Niño will be a “borderline-strong” event, Null said.
It’s true, a strong El Niño, as measured by temperature change in the ocean, does seem more likely to produce wet winters. But it is not enough reason to start building that new swimming pool.
There have been only four strong El Niños in the past 65 years. Two of those led to a wet winter. The other half were drier than average.