2002 snowpack and runoff were terrible on the Rio Grande and San Juan. Think the San Juan Chama Project diverted about 6,000 acre-feet into the Rio Grande that year (normal would be between 80,0000 and 120,000 acre-feet. Heck, for Colorado on the mainstem Rio Grande, we had to negotiate a new delivery by Colorado to New Mexico because the actual inflow that year was lower than any contemplated in the Rio Grande Compact. Only thing that allowed us to manage thru the year was releases of water stored in previous years. If this dryness continues, with no storage to speak of, 2026 will be a very difficult year of water management/flows and, unfortunately, possibly fires.
– Rolf Schmidt-Petersen, pulled out of the comments here.
Inspired by Rolf’s comments, I ran some numbers to get a feel for what reservoir storage looked in 2002. Here’s the most useful graph – total water in storage above New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande Valley this year, compared to 2002:
2002 compared to 2026, reservoir storage in Northern New Mexico. Data USBR, graph by John Fleck
Watch the dotted line. That’s storage declining in 2002 as water managers drained water out of El Vado and Heron reservoirs (primarily) to keep the Rio Grande flowing. We don’t have that option this year.
Excuse, my ignorance, but is this as bad as it looks? So far, the snowpacks for the San Juan and the Rio Grande are currently about 50% of the 30 year median and the storage at the northern reservoirs is about zero? In 2025 those who contract for San Juan water, got a little less than a third of their allocation? In 2026 they will likely get less? And they will likely have to deplete their aquifers? If 2025 and 2026 so far are the new normal, we have a very real crisis?