Broken Arrow

Two-track dirt road through desert scrub with buildings and mountains in the distance.

Maybe this is the spot?

Alternative blog post title: No Bad Days on the Bike

In the picture above, you might be looking at the spot where the Air Force in 1957 accidentally dropped a nuclear bomb on the mesa south of Albuquerque.

Nuclear history nerds have dropped their Google map pins at a couple of places along this two-track dirt ranch road. The Mark 17 bomb wasn’t armed (the plutonium capsule had been removed), but the conventional explosives all by themselves created a crater 25 feet wide and 12 feet deep when it hit.

A B-36 “Peacemaker” (really, that’s what they called it) was on final approach to Albuquerque when something happened – maybe one of the crew accidentally grabbed the release lever to steady himself against turbulence. (Great write up here about the whole affair.) The bomb, minus its plutonium, slammed through the bomb bay doors. It is obligatory in written accounts to note that it killed a cow.

The Air Force lied and filled in the hole, and the details weren’t released until the 1980s, when an Albuquerque Journal reporter named David Morrissey used the Freedom of Information Act to pry the accident reports loose. His FOIA work was legend. I inherited his desk and beat and filed a lot of nuclear weapons FOIAs, but never got anything this good.

On our bike “ride” today (note the tire rut in the sand, there was walk-a-bike and at least one goathead-inspired flat) we found a circular area with different vegetation that seemed like the right size to be the spot. It matched a map I can’t remember the source of. Another map puts it a couple hundred feet to the north. It’s about 2-1/2 miles of increasingly ratty dirt roads from the big Netflix studios where they make all those shows, somewhere around here.

The sealant in my front tire lost the battle with the goatheads, which were wicked. The sand was, at times, also wicked. But the people we thought were probably serial killers were just out with their dogs (far too well behaved to be serial killers’ dogs). We found lots of other weird stuff, often with bullet holes. The coolest weird stuff on our desert rides has bullet holes.

We’ve tried a couple of times before to find the bomb place. I’m gonna call it good this time ‘round.

As I said, no bad days on the bike.

 

Rio Abajo and the Unit 7 Drain

Olive green desert vegetation spreading out beyond an irrigation ditch in the foreground, with a single tree, a distant railroad train, and clouds spread across a blue sky.

Unit 7 Drain near the confluence of the Rio Grande and the Rio Puerco.

NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE RIO PUERCO AND THE RIO GRANDE – The broad delta where the Rio Puerco meets the Rio Grande in central New Mexico has never been a great place to live, though people try. To the east, across the river, the Ancestral Puebloan Piro built the village Spanish colonizers named “Sevilleta” (“little Seville”) on a Pleistocene gravel bench up out of the flood plain. Because when the Rio Puerco is in flood, it really is in flood.

In their 1984 book Rio Abajo: A Prehistory of a Rio Grande Province, Michael Marshall, Henry Walt, and colleagues chose a naming convention that I like, even though it is confusing as hell. The traditional naming convention for the Rio Grande in Spanish New Mexico is to divide the river and its human communities (as always, the physical geography creates the structure the human communities follow, but it’s the human communities driving the naming) thus:

  • Rio Arriba for the landscape north of the great escarpment known as La Bajada.
  • Rio Abajo for the landscape south of La Bajada

But both physical and human geography suggest a second division. It is worth quoting their reasoning in full (Marshall and Walt 1984, p. 1):

The term “Rio Abajo,” as it is used in this volume, is of Pre-Revolt vintage and applies specifically to the Pueblo and Hispanic province of the Piro, believed to have extended from the Paraje de Fra Cristóbal on the south to Abeytas or Sabinal on the north (Figure 1.1). In 1776, nearly a century after the demise of Piro-Hispanic civilization in the Socorro region and just before the resettlement, Fray Francisco Antanasio Domínguez divided the Kingdom of New Mexico into two sections: Rio Arriba and Rio Abajo (Adams and Chávez 1956:7). At that time, Rio Abajo was described as the area from Cochiti Pueblo on the north to below Isleta Pueblo (i.e., Sabinal) on the south. Since the emphasis of this study is on the Piro and the Pre-Revolt era, we have employed the archaic usage of the term “Rio Abajo” from the time when Colonial Hispanic settlements extended as far south as Senecú. From a research perspective it is logical to describe the region north of the Piro district and south of La Bajada as “Rio Medio,” although this term is not found in the historic archives.

Sepia-toned topographical map showing the Rio Puerco joining the Rio Grande, pushing the Rio Grande toward the east.

Historical Topographic Map Collection

Spatting with its much larger sibling, the Puerco at the confluence, with its ephemeral flows but massive sediment load when it does run, has shoved the Rio Grande to the east in a broad bend that snaps nicely into view in the 1952 USGS topo map to the right. Blasting out into the valley floor, the Puerco’s delta has created a broad, gentle high spot, and in flood water backs up the valley to the north. I have seen this.

It is sediment that drives the story my collaborator Bob Berrens and I are trying to understand for the new book project we’re beginning to explore. Managing the sediment in this stretch of the river – from the Puerco and the Rio Salado eight miles downstream, plus umpty named and unnamed arroyos that blast in under the weight of summer rains – is the central challenge for water management in this stretch of the Rio Grande in the 21st century.

We drew our boundaries around the stretch of river from the Puerco down past San Marcial for different reasons than Marshall and Walt. Ours was based on river management, theirs was cultural. In the Marshall-Walt topography, Rio Abajo is the home of a people we’ve come to call the Piro, a name applied by the Spanish to the Ancestral Puebloans who lived along this stretch of the river before Spanish colonizers arrived in the 1500s (Bletzer 2013). But old human settlement patterns and modern river management challenges are built atop the same foundation.

I’m nervous about pushing too hard on the idea that geomorphology drives the structure of human communities on the landscape. Lots of other stuff is involved, but geomorphology lies at the base of the rest of it, our decisions about where to live, to hunt and gather, to build our farms and cities. Why did the Piro build on the east side of the river here? How did they use the river, live with the river? Today, the question about where we build our highways, our railroads, and our levees and ditches, are motivated by the same things. So I put the bike in the car yesterday morning and drove down to La Joya, the state game park on the river’s west side just downstream from the confluence, to try to understand the shape of the landscape.

This has become a central piece of my practice as a writer in the last few years. I’ve always pursued what I have called “journalism by wandering around,” going to a place and just kinda being there, looking around with curiosity, thinking about how and why stuff spatially fits together. The networked nature of water lends itself to this style of thinking, because water moves in paths, and the humans moving with it follow and, increasingly, shape those paths. In the last five years, as my work has become more intimately place based, I’ve done it on my bicycle. I move at the right pace to feel the landscape.

I parked at one of the “La Joya Wildlife Management Area” pullouts near the river and headed north, up the east side service road (the side closest to the river) for the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District’s Unit 7 Drain, a bizarre water management channel that does what it says on the tin. I need to do a full post on the Unit 7 Drain, it’s super weird. It snakes through the Lomas Pardas Narrows downstream of the Puerco, siphons under the Rio Salado and into the Angostura de San Acacia, winding parallel to railroad tracks on the west and the Rio Grand’s main channel on the east, slicing through a wildlife refuge and hunting park, turning drain water into a fresh source of irrigation supply for Socorro County farmers. It’s one of my favorite spots on the river and is for sure one of the weirdest MRGCD ditches, right up there with the place in the South Valley where the Barr Canal cuts through a junkyard. There is, or was, a much beloved Albuquerque post-punk band named after the Unit 7 Drain. You can’t make up shit that good.

Picking which side of a ditch to ride on is always tricky, because I want the side that’s most rideable, meaning least sandy. But I also want to be on the side closest to my ultimate destination, because often there aren’t any crossings, and wading through a ditch with my bike is impractical. The road yesterday was good, the sand mostly packed down by recent summer rains, which also made it green. The white-crowned sparrows seemed happy with the results, if not annoyed at my presence, doing that thing they do where the clustered in groups around the ditchbank vegetation and dashed out ahead of the bike, as if they were escorting me.

Gate and "no trespassing" signs blocked a sandy dirt road, with lush green vegetation to the right and an irrigation ditch to the left

Rio Grande Hunt Club?

I was deterred from reaching my goal – the actual confluence of the Rio Puerco and the Rio Grande – by a gate and a no trespassing sign on the service road. I was pretty sure this was the classic western move of putting up “no trespassing” signs to privatize a public space, but I was having a leisurely morning and didn’t fancy a confrontation with the sort of entitled people with guns who frequent “hunt clubs” and exploit murky areas of law to claim ownership of rivers, so I turned back.

A look at county and MRGCD property maps when I got home supported my hypothesis – the actual private property involved is a third of a mile away, and the service road itself sure looks to me like MRGCD property the whole way – in other words, public property – both sides. But MRGCD access rules are complicated, and a careful post-ride study of the satellite imagery now that I have a better feel for the place suggests several routes to the confluence that should avoid any entanglements with the gray areas of rivers and property law (see Adobe Whitewater decision – the hunt club people do seem to actually own a big piece of the Rio Puerco itself). So I’ll be back.

 

References:

  • Adobe Whitewater v. NM State Game Commission, 519 P. 3d 46, 2022 NMSC 20 – NM: Supreme Court, 2022
  • Bletzer, Michael. “The First Province of that Kingdom: Notes on the Colonial History of the Piro Area.” New Mexico Historical Review 88, no. 4 (2013): 4.
  • Marshall, Michael P., and Henry J. Walt. Rio Abajo: prehistory and history of a Rio Grande province. Museum of New Mexico Press, 1984.

New Mexico’s Dry Middle Rio Grande: More Data Visualizations

Graph showing days of river drying on New Mexico's middle Rio Grande, showing 2025 the driest since the 1970s.

25 cfs at Central means the Rio Grande dries before it reaches the Albuquerque wastewater treatment plant.

Alert Inkstain reader Rolf asked in the comments of last weekend’s post for a version of the above graph – number of days of low flow at the Central Avenue Bridge – with a threshold above zero. I usually set the threshold at 25, because our experience in the last two drying episodes – 2022 and 2025 – that’s the point at which the river went dry before it could reach the wastewater treatment plant.

Bar chart of annual Rio Grande flow at Otowi Bridge, NM, from early 1900s to 2025, measured in acre-feet through August 21 each year. Each vertical bar shows a year’s flow; 2025 is near the low end. Years with less flow than 2025 are highlighted in red, showing rare but repeated low-flow events, especially in the 1950s and 1960s. Thick black horizontal bars mark decadal averages, which decline from the high flows of the early 20th century to lower averages in recent decades, illustrating a long-term downward trend.

Previous years this dry or drier, with added decadal horizontal bars.

Here’s an updated version of total flow past Otowi to date, with previous years this dry or drier in red, and I added horizontal bars to show decadal averages. As alert reader Devin pointed out, the years after 1972 include imported San Juan-Chama flows. Rio Grande Compact accounting would subtract that out (“Otowi Index Flow”), but I’m interested in the hydrologic reality in the valley, not in using this as an accounting or climate measure. This helps us think about how much water we actually have entering the valley.

Bar chart of annual Rio Grande flow at Albuquerque, NM, from the 1960s to 2025, measured in acre-feet through August 21 each year. Each bar shows a year’s flow; 2025 is highlighted near the low end. Years with less flow than 2025 are in red, showing such low-flow events have been uncommon but not unprecedented. Thick black horizontal bars mark decadal averages, which rise into the 1980s and then decline steadily through recent decades, illustrating a long-term reduction in average flow.

Total flow to date at Albuquerque gage.

Here’s the same approach as for Otowi above, but for Albuquerque. As measured by total flow to date, this is also the lowest since 1977.

And since it keeps showing up, here’s 1977. Worth noting (but hard to parse in too much detail because of some missing data) is that El Vado Reservoir began 1977 at near-normal levels, and even though it was a terrible snowpack year they were able to supplement flows by some 100,000 acre feet by draining El Vado between late April and early August of ’77 to supplement the Rio Grande’s flow:

Line and shaded-area chart of daily Rio Grande flows at Albuquerque, NM, 1965–2025. Shaded blue and green bands show historical ranges and medians. The 1977 line (black) shows lower-than-normal flows through winter and spring, but with sharp spikes during the summer monsoon. The 2025 line (blue) stays consistently low with no strong runoff or monsoon surge. The record median (green dashed) shows a strong May–June peak, absent in both 1977 and 2025.

1977: drier spring, wetter summer.

Driest on New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande since when? 1972? 1964?

Upturned couch in a dry, sandy riverbed, flanked by green trees on both side

Dry Rio Grande. Albuquerque, July 2025

I spent some time this morning crunching numbers, trying to make numerical sense of how bad this year is on New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande. We keep saying it’s only the second time the Rio Grande has dried through Albuquerque since the 1980s, but that felt insufficient.

Some data visualization experiments:

Graph of days of drying on the Rio Grande at Albuquerque's central avenue bridge, showing the most drying days since 1972.

Total days, by year, with a USGS average daily gage measurement of zero at Central Avenue in Albuquerque (forgive the “or less,” the code allows me to look at low flows below arbitrary thresholds)

By this measure – total days measured at “zero” by the USGS gage at Central Avenue in Albuquerque – it’s the driest since 1972, when the river was dry at that spot on 74 days. (Note that if it’s dry at Central, it’s already been dry far longer at points downstream.)

Or this: How much total water is entering New Mexico’s Middle Valley, as measured at Otowi, the gage immediately upstream? This uses some old code I wrote some time ago to sum up total flows to date at a gage, to allow year-to-year comparison during the year. I colored this year, and all previous years that were worse, in red. By this measure, 2025 is the driest year since 1964.

Graph of total flow through Aug. 15 at the USGS Otowi gage on the Rio Grande, with 2025 and all years previously lower colored red. This shows 2025 as the driest year since 1964.

Total flow to date past Otowi.

 

Awaiting the Colorado River 24-Month Study

By John Fleck, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara

As we await Friday’s (Aug. 15, 2025) release of the Bureau of Reclamation’s Colorado River 24-Month Study, we need to remember a painful lesson of the last five years of crisis management: whatever you see in Reclamation’s report of the “Most Probable” reservoir levels for the next two years, we must prepare for things to be much worse.

A year ago, Reclamation’s “Most Probable” forecast told us to expect Lake Powell to hold 10.36 million acre feet of water at the end of July 2025, with a surface elevation 3,593 feet above sea level. Actual storage in Powell at the end of July was 7.46 maf, 2.9 million acre feet less, and the reservoir is 38 feet lower, than the “Most Probable” forecast.

Four years ago, one of us (Eric Kuhn) wrote this, which is helpful in understanding what is happening:

The problem: the assumptions underlying the study do not fully capture the climate-change driven aridification of the Colorado River Basin.

In 2022, a Utah State Center for Colorado River Studies team led by Jian Wang (including one of us, Schmidt) took this on in more technical detail – Evaluating the Accuracy of Reclamation’s 24-Month Study of Lake Powell Projections. The finding provided technical support for an intuition water managers already had: the 24-Month Study has an optimistic bias.

It is a practical demonstration of the problem U.S. Geological Survey scientist Paul Milly and colleagues famously warned us about nearly two decades ago – in water management, climate change means the past is increasingly unhelpful in projecting the future.

The 24-Month Study: A Brief Primer

Produced monthly, Reclamation’s 24-Month Study includes three scenarios: Most Probable, Minimum Probable, and Maximum Probable. The Study includes 18 pages of data and forecasts for twelve Colorado River system reservoirs, from Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge in the north to Mohave and Havasu in the south, projecting things like elevation, storage, inflows, releases, evaporation, and hydropower production each month for the next two years.

Here is Wang et al’s explanation of how it works:

Projections for reservoir elevations during the next few months are based on predictions of reservoir inflow using a widely accepted watershed hydrologic model run by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The input data for that model are observed snowpack in the watershed, soil moisture, and anticipated precipitation and temperature. Projections for reservoir elevations beyond the immediately proximate winter, a year or more in the future (‘second year projections’), are based on statistical probabilities calculated using analyses of past inflows during a 30-year reference period.

The resulting model runs represent a wide range of uncertainties, which are captured in three resulting scenarios:

  • Most Probable: the middle of the range
  • Maximum Probable: the 90th percentile scenario, meaning that 10% of the model runs predict even wetter hydrology and 90% predict drier.
  • Minimum Probable: the 10th percentile scenario, meaning that 10% of the model runs predict even drier hydrology and 90% predict wetter.

The problem, implicit in the argument Milly et al. made nearly two decades ago, is that a 30-year reference period is no longer a reliable indicator of what we should expect in the future. It represents a river we no longer have. This is not to suggest any bias or partiality on the part of Reclamation, but merely that the algorithms and modeling used to produce the 24-Month Study have proven in recent years to be skewed more toward the the past than the true-to-life. Our response needs to reflect that reality.

Because of the changing conditions in the Colorado River Basin, the Minimum Probable scenario has become the most valuable in providing a reliable indicator of the future. Actual flows and reservoir levels have been tracking the minimum probable forecast since March of this year. As we enter the fall of 2025, with the weak summer monsoon for most of the Upper Basin coupled with weak La Niña conditions persisting through the fall and early winter, and NOAA’s seasonal outlook pointing to a warmer and drier than average fall, it’s a good bet that this trend will continue at least through mid-winter. The Basin should be prepared for minimum probable conditions, with a clear possibility that  actual conditions could be worse than the 10th percentile scenario. The basin community needs to be ready to respond with the necessary water use reductions now to protect the Colorado River system on which we all depend.

Sources:

Glacial Erratics

Great blue heron on a large pyramid-shaped rock jutting out of calm waters with a low distant horizon of hills.

Great blue heron on a glacial erratic. Photo by L. Heineman, Aug. 2025

WHIDBEY ISLAND – It’s a five minute walk to the beach from the place we’re staying on Whidbey Island. It’s a pebbly beach, not like the soft sands of Oxnard where I first met (and in one case, fell in love with) the folks around me this week. Time has lifted and moved us, depositing us in very different places from where we were when our paths first crossed in the early 1980s.

The landscape here around the Salish Sea (“Puget Sound” is the name for the lobe extending south toward Seattle, and “Saratoga Passage” for the bit of water in the picture between Whidbey and Camano islands, each a subset nested in the larger) is fundamentally glacial, carved again and again, most recently some 15,000-ish years ago by the advance and retreat of what we moderns call the Puget Lobe of the Vashon Glacier. Thousands of feet thick, it bulldozed the landscape all higgledy-piggledy, shoving boulders and rocks and gavel and sand this way and that, then dumping them as the glacier dwindled away, melting and leaving great rolling hills of gentle topography hundreds of feet (thousands? I can only see the bits above the water line) thick.

Boulders in shallow water next to a rocky beach.

Glacial erratics, Whidbey Island, photo by John Fleck, August 2025

Down the beach on an early morning walk the day after our arrival, I was smitten by these big boulders. “Glacial erratics” is one of my favorite sciency terms. Rocks carried from one place by a glacier and deposited in another, they are storytellers, encoded with the place they came from and the place they ended up. These rocks came down from what we would today call “Canada”, though Stefan Freelan’s marvelous map shows how odd the categories created by human-drawn lines on the map are as related to the underlying landscape.

I picked up a rental bike and spent a good part of the day Saturday riding the island, which about killed my poor old guy legs. One of the joys of cycling is the visceral, physical feel you get for the landscape. This one has rollers, up and down and up and down and up and down – the glacial till is rarely flat. The joy was real, the feel for the landscape, but yowza my legs felt it the next day. Cycling the Rio Grande Valley has not left me well prepared for this style of riding. I had to figure out how to fit the bike in the rental car so I could drive to a flatter part of the island to ride.

White ferry boat with green trim approaching doc with piling in the foreground.

The Salish approaching Keystone on Whidbey Island. Photo by John Fleck

Off to the east, the Keystone Ferry runs back and forth to Port Townsend on the mainland, the Olympic Peninsula. Locals look at me oddly when I share my enthusiasm for the rhythm of ferry traffic, the coming together of a group of people to act collectively to get from one place to another. Bridges have a lot of the same conceptual characteristics, but less romance. I was happy to park the bike and sit on a picnic bench, resting the old man legs (I ask so much of them!) while watching a ferry named “Salish” dock and discharge its collective humanity. There was a teenager down on the beach tossing rocks into the air and then whacking them into the water with a stick.

I first started coming to the edge of the Salish Sea in the late ‘70s. I lived in Walla Walla, in eastern Washington, and we’d drive over Snoqualmie Pass to Seattle, often, to play the sort of games energetic youngsters experimenting with their emergence into adulthood play. We’ve been coming ever since – first to revisit my youth, then to visit members of my kooky chosen family who settled on the Island. It’s been a while since we last came, and it’s nice to be back.

The octagonal house on the beach at Snakelum Point that we visited in the ‘80s is gone, replaced by a hideous mansion built to the lot lines – we had to ignore the no trespassing signs to revisit the memories. It’s been replaced as a chosen family anchor in our lives by a menagerie up in the woods with its own sawmill, to mill the boards from which the new homestead has been built. That’s the joy, and the place the glacial erratic metaphor breaks down. The boulders just sit there, but at our best we human erratics make place.

138,000 cfs

A beach crowded with people enjoying a hot summer afternoon along a large river, with forested hills on the far bank.

Broughton Beach on the Columbia River at low tide, Portland Oregon, July 29, 2025.

But look! here come more crowds, pacing straight for the water, and seemingly bound for a dive. Strange! Nothing will content them but the extremest limit of the land; loitering under the shady lee of yonder warehouses will not suffice. No. They must get just as nigh the water as they possibly can without falling in. And there they stand—miles of them—leagues. Inlanders all, they come from lanes and alleys, streets and avenues—north, east, south, and west. Yet here they all unite.

Herman Melville, Moby Dick

Quoting Martha Nussbaum

And what if it is love one is trying to understand, that strange unmanageable phenomenon or form of life, source at once of illumination and confusion, agony and beauty? Love, in its many varieties, and their tangled relations to the good human life, to aspiration, to general social concern? What parts of oneself, what method, what writing, should one choose then? What is, in short, love’s knowledge—and what writing does it dictate in the heart?

Martha Nussbaum, Love’s Knowledge: Essays on Philosophy and Literature

Craig Allen joins us on the Utton Center’s Water Matters! podcast

Formed in a series of volcanic eruptions between 1 and 2 million years ago, the Jemez Mountains dominate the cultural and environmental history of central New Mexico.

For more than four decades, forest ecologist Craig Allen has studied them, engaging in what has come to be known as “place-based ecology,” with deep roots in what the Nuevo Mexicanos would call “querencia” – a deep love and sense of place.

The resulting of Craig’s passion is a vast body of scientific work that shed light on the impact of climate change on a forest landscape. The results also reflect a deeply personal journey for Allen, as aridity and fire change a place he loves.

Episode 4 of the Rin Tara/John Fleck Water Matters podcast

The 86-pound catfish of Lake San Marcial

Old newspaper headline: 86-Pound Catfish Hooked at San Marcial

Albuquerque Journal, June 17, 1951

If you have ever been to modern San Marcial, New Mexico – or what is left of it – the notion of an 86-pound catfish requires some explanation.

The spot where D.C. George hooked his record catfish is today ragged scrubland. But for a brief, shining, extremely odd period of time in the 1940s and ’50s, Lake San Marcial was a big deal.

It was popular with the hook and bullet set, while on occasion also swallowing Atchison, Topeka, & Santa Fe locomotives (so, less popular with the railroad).

It was the subject of dueling litigation. The railroad was mad about the swallowed locomotives, blaming the federal government for causing the lake. The Hunters, owners of the fishing resort, got mad when the federal government decided to drain (or maybe fill?) the lake, so they sued too.

It is a useful example of a common sequence of events when we engineer a river:

  1. Change a river with engineering.
  2. Something weird happens.
  3. People and ecosystems improvise, optimizing around the new state.
  4. But the new state causes problems, too.
  5. Try to fix these problems.
  6. People who had optimized around the new state, or who value the ecosystem’s optimization around the new state, are pissed about the change.

Located 120-ish river miles down the Rio Grande from Albuquerque, the town of San Marcial was a happening place in the early 1900s – major railroad employment center, heart of a what was, in the romantic retellings, a lovely little farming valley with its sibling Tiffany just up river and Val Verde across the narrow desert valley.

As the retellings often point out, it had an opera house. (I’m a writer. I get it. How can you resist an opera house.)

Upstream from a geomorphic bottleneck – the volcanic Black Mesa to the east, a string of sediment-laden arroyos coming in from the west – the San Marcial reach of the Rio Grande has long been a trouble spot for those bent on settling on the valley floor. Flooding was not uncommon. But with the 1916 completion of Elephant Butte Dam to the south, the flooding got worse. Elephant Butte’s full pool elevation is downstream of the bottleneck, but as a reservoir encroaching from downstream slows a river, sediment deposition creeps upstream, often well beyond the reservoir’s actual high water mark.

Whether Elephant Butte’s presence, the sediment deposition, actually caused the flooding that in 1929 ended San Marcial’s opera house days would be the subject of some legal debate in the decades that followed. A federal judge in 1960 ruled that the federal government, builder of Elephant Butte, was not to blame but, as I said, further research needed.

Base Level, Aggradation, and Grade

The modern scientific consensus seems to be that, duh, of course Elephant Butte caused the demise of San Marcial.

Perhaps the most notable example of the aggrading wedge upstream of a reservoir is at the Elephant Butte reservoir, built in 1912 on the Rio Grande about 300 km downstream of Albuquerque, New Mexico (Eakin, 1936). By the 1930s, the Rio Grande had aggraded many kilometers upstream of the head of the lake. Because the sediment load was sand, most of the aggradation was in the channel with the creation of natural levees. Drainage from the distal land on to the floodplain was blocked from entering the stream by the natural levees and thus the floodplain became a wetland and was even ponded in many places. Near the reservoir, the stream level was superposed, or higher than the floodplain. By the 1930s, a local village, San Marcial, began to be flooded and was finally evacuated (Eakin, 1936). It was feared that the wedge of sediment would eventually extend all the way to Albuquerque but that never happened (Mackin, 1948).

– Trimble, Stanley W. “Streams, valleys and floodplains in the sediment cascade.” Sediment cascades: An integrated approach (2010): 307-343.

Graph showing sediment wedge puling up behind Ramah dam.

Sediment Wedge, Ramah, New Mexico.

In their seminal paper Base Level, Aggradation, and Grade, Luna Leopold and William Bull explained how a river slows and drops is sediments as it reaches a controlling base level. The most obvious example is the ocean, which on geomorphological time scales is relatively stable. The result is a wedge of sediment well upstream of the ocean itself. This also happens when we dam a river. The reservoir level acts like a mini-ocean, and the sediments back up well upstream of the of the reservoir level itself as water slows down and spreads out.

Natural constraints do this as well – constraints like the pinch point between the volcanic mesa to the east and arroyos dumping in their load from the west just downstream from the ill-fated community of San Marcial.

A tale of catfish and willow flycatchers

Topographic map showing Lake San Marcial and its surrounding area in New Mexico. The Rio Grande flows from the northeast to the southwest through the center of the map, bordered by wide green floodplain areas indicating riparian vegetation. Lake San Marcial appears as a large blue water body on the west bank of the Rio Grande, just south of the town of San Marcial. A railroad labeled “Atchison” runs parallel to the river’s west bank, passing between San Marcial and Lake San Marcial, and continuing south past Val Verde. The map also shows ruins, cemeteries, and geographic features like Mesa Peak and the Pedro Armendaris Grant boundary.

San Marcial Lake

The weird thing for today’s blog post is the lake, which seems to have emerged in the 1940s, perhaps following the floods of 1941 and ’42, which pushed Elephant Butte to its high stand, depositing sediment in this reach and in general causing a geomorphologic mess – not a mess for the river, the river’s just doin’ river stuff, but a mess for the humans who had taken on the obligation of managing the Rio Grande.

Like, trains kept falling into Lake San Marcial, but more importantly for the task of river management, water that humans wanted to hurry on down to Elephant Butte so folks downstream could water their crops was instead spreading out in the “lake” and surrounding swamps. The river no longer flowed here, and New Mexico as a result had fallen hundreds of thousands of acre feet behind in its obligations under the Rio Grande Compact to deliver water to Elephant Butte Reservoir for use in Southern New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico.

Draining the lake and those swamps was as a result a passionate imperative among New Mexicans in the 1950s, as we essentially agreed to federalize the river so the taxpayers of the nation, after helping create the problem by subsidizing Elephant Butte Dam for our benefit, were now asked to again subsidize the fix to the problem created at Elephant Butte’s upstream end.

The Middle Rio Grande Project

The Flood Control Act of 1948 (and a subsequent 1950 iteration) authorized the US Bureau of Reclamation and the Army Corps of Engineers to, among other things, “fix” the San Marcial stretch of the Rio Grande- “river rectification” was the formal terminology of the day. To do that, the Bureau dug what amounts to a second river channel, which today we call the “Low Flow Conveyance Channel,” alongside the river’s old channel. Here’s the explanation from Chris Gorbach’s 1999 history (found in these conference proceedings):

In 1951, President Truman gave Reclamation special authority to start channel construction immediately. Work on the low-flow channel and clearing a floodway for passage of higher flows began in October of that year. Construction on the low-flow channel continued throughout the ’50s. A first phase, the so-called San Marcial Channel, was completed at the end of 1953. Diversions through a heading near the southern end of the Bosque del Apache began in November of that year. Extension of the low-low channel upstream to San Acacia was completed in 1959. When completed, the low-flow channel extended some 70 miles from San Acacia to a point just above the narrows of Elephant Butte Reservoir.

By 1956, the lake where D.C. George hooked that 86-pounder was dried up, turned to grazing land for cattle, and the Hunters were suing the federal government over the loss of their fishing resort. Further research needed on the demise of San Marcial Lake. The news coverage of the day suggests the Bureau of Reclamation diverted silt-laden Rio Grande water into the lake to fill it up. The Hunters called that negligence, the Bureau responded that, no, it was exactly what they intended, and were authorized by Congress to do.

Laguna de Fray Cristóbal

Three quarters of a century after the demise of San Marcial Lake, we’re experiencing a repeat. About ten miles downstream, a large body of water has emerged, apparently of some interest to anglers, certainly of great interest to Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (ecosystems improvise, optimizing around the new state), and also certainly of extraordinary interest to the water managers of 2025 charged with carrying out the obligations we took on as a community when we began engineering the Rio Grande more than a century ago.

Off to the west of the end of the Low Flow Conveyance Channel are 100 acres of open water surrounded by wetlands that are, from a “water in the desert” environmental aesthetic perspective, a delight created by leaks and levee failures in a stretch of the river that doesn’t get a lot of love. The Bureau of Reclamation has even installed gizmos to divert some of the water now flowing down the Low Flow Conveyance Channel into this wetland, beloved by the endangered flycatcher. But in a world in which competing and conflicting values include a desire to move water to farms and cities downstream, in the process meeting the legal requirements of the Rio Grande Compact, the River Mile 60 pond is not universally beloved. Here’s Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District CEO/Chief Engineer Jason Casuga in a letter to the state last summer:

What was originally a failure in infrastructure has now become a managed habitat feature by the federal government. The breach channel eventually makes its way back to the river some 7 miles downstream of RM 60. MRGCD is concerned about the depletions taking place within the breach channel and adjacent floodplain habitat when you consider the area of inundation is likely between 900 to 1,500 acres and has a corresponding evapotranspiration rate of more than 5.5’ per acre annually (based on OpenET).

At a time New Mexico is falling farther and farther behind on its compact obligation to communities in Southern New Mexico and Texas, this is a problem. It is an example of the sometimes competing and conflicting values at play when we take on the enduring obligation of engineering a river.

In a letter last week (July 17, 2025) to the Bureau of Reclamation, New Mexico Office of the State Engineer General Counsel Nat Chakeres gently suggested that diverting water into the wetland was not in keeping with the aforementioned Flood Control Acts of 1948 and ’50, which authorized Reclamation to bail us out of the messes that Reclamation in part created by building Elephant Butte in the first place. Chakeres’ argument is that the acts of Congress setting the whole thing up explicitly prioritized delivery of Compact water.

In summary, the sole authorized purpose of the LFCC is to convey water to Elephant Butte for compliance with the Rio Grande Compact. If water is diverted from the LFCC and consumed for habitat purposes, that is water that could have been delivered but was not.

There’s been some discussion about what we should call the River Mile 60 pond. A number of names have been suggested, but none capture the grace of this much-maligned, often forgotten but, to my eyes, magnificent stretch of the Rio Grande.

Nearby is the old Paraje de Fray Cristóbal, a hardscrabble stopping point on the old Camino Real. I suggest we call it “Laguna de Fray Cristóbal.”