A lousy January in the Colorado River Basin

January Colorado Basin precip, courtesy CBRFC

January Colorado Basin precip, courtesy CBRFC

January was dry in the water-producing parts of the Colorado River Basin.

The official Feb. 1 forecast for the Colorado River above Lake Powell (the part of the Basin where all the water comes from) calls for just 80 percent of median April-July inflow. That’s a big drop from the Jan. 1 forecast, which called for inflow of normal (and by “normal” I mean at the median).

That’s about 1.2 million acre feet less inflow forecast. That’s a lot of water to lose in a month. I realize it’s just water on paper. There still are big error bars on the forecast, inherent uncertainties because we don’t know how much it’ll snow from here on out. Seasonal forecast odds are tipped slightly toward wet, so we could get some of that back.

But yowza, 1.2 million acre feet is a lot of water.

Feb. 1 Rio Grande forecast numbers – still bad

update Feb. 4:

The official numbers are out, largely unchanged from the preliminary numbers:

Otowi

  • max: 107 percent
  • mid: 63 percent
  • min: 33 percent

San Marcial

  • max: 108 percent
  • mid: 49 percent
  • min: sorta zero (the models have a hard time with the bottom end of the range at San Marcial)

previously: The NRCS preliminary Feb. 1 forecast numbers are out, and despite last week’s storm, they continue to point to the fourth consecutive low flow year on the Rio Grande in New Mexico.

At Otowi, the key spot for measuring flow into the river’s mid-New Mexico valleys, the mid point of the forecast range is 450,000 acre feet of runoff from March through July, which would be 63 percent of the 1981-2010 average. The forecast offers max, mid and low numbers, which correspond to a one in ten chance on the wet side, the mid point, and a one in ten on the dry side. Here are the percentages:

  • max: 101 percent
  • mid: 63 percent
  • min: 33 percent

What that’s telling us is that the snowpack is low now, and it would take great snow from here on out just to get us up to normal. And that if things stay dry, it could get a whole lot worse.

San Marcial, the last measurement point above Elephant Butte reservoir, looks crummier at the midpoint, but with a bigger spread:

  • max: 109 percent
  • mid: 50 percent
  • min: sorta zero (the models have a hard time with the bottom end of the range at San Marcial)

These are preliminary numbers. NRCS will firm them up later in the week, and I’ll provide an update.

Who does this matter to? Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District farmers have essentially no water in storage, and will have a hard time storing any for the peak of summer at those midpoints. Lower Rio Grande farmers are in a similar situation. And the coalition of agencies trying to keep the river wet for the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow will have some scrambling to do.

On the plus side, despite last week’s storm, the roof above my new UNM office didn’t leak, so there’s that.

“I’ve been born and raised, still hauling water.”

In the Navajo Times, a piece about Darlene Arviso, the water lady. She drives a big truck around to homes on the eastern side of the reservation without running water, of which there are many:

Armed with her cellphone and massive truck, Arviso heads out into the community to deliver water to families in need.

“I go to different areas every day. I do 10 to 14 houses a day,” Arviso said of her route, adding that if some of the elders are home alone she’ll help them fill their buckets and take them inside.

In that regard, it is worth noting that the administration’s Fiscal Year 2016 budget request asks Congress to appropriate $91.2 million dollars for continued work on the Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project, which will bring a more reliable supply of water into the eastern reaches of the Navajo Nation, where hauling water is the norm.

the problem with “drought”

The new monthly U.S. drought outlook, out this morning, has good news for New Mexico:

February 2015 drought outlook

February 2015 drought outlook

But wait, I thought that idiot Fleck told us in Sunday’s paper that water managers were bracing for another dry year in New Mexico. What gives?

This:

The question of who might be hurt and who will avoid the pain illustrates the complex nature of New Mexico water, where drought is no one big thing, but rather a series of little things, depending on the needs of each group of water users.

If you’re irrigating from a ditch off of Embudo Creek, collecting Sangre de Cristo snowmelt, you’ve got a decent shot at a reasonable runoff this year. If you depend on river runoff from Colorado, like my friend Steve Harris, who runs a river rafting operation in northern New Mexico? See that brown blob extending north of the border atop the headwaters of the Rio Grande? Yeah, not so good, sorry Steve. Steve lives in essentially the same place as the Embudo Creek irrigators, but his water needs are completely different.

If you’re the city of Albuquerque, you’ve got plenty in storage and groundwater to fall back on. You’ll be fine, regardless of the map color on top of you. If you’re growing onions in the Hatch Valley of southern New Mexico, the color of the map where you live also doesn’t matter, but in the other direction. No matter how green it gets, an empty Elephant Butte Reservoir and lousy snowpack to the north means another lousy irrigation season unless we get some monster snows between now and spring. Local rains in Albuquerque and Hatch can help at the margins, but are not determinative of local “drought” conditions.

 

In New Mexico, precip where it matters not

tl;dr Despite good rain in the cities of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Valley this year (especially at my house!), it’s the snowpack that matters for state water supply. And the snowpack is not good.

Albuquerque precip through 1/31/2015

Albuquerque precip through 1/31/2015

Longer: My backyard rain barrels are full, and the latest storm has brought Albuquerque’s water year precipitation (since Oct. 1) to 2.72 inches (6.9 cm), 10 percent above the mean. Unfortunately for the state’s water users, the amount that falls in the river valleys of central New Mexico means little. It is mountain snowpack that matters.

When I was out last fall with a group of university colleagues who were doing field work for a drought vulnerability study, one of the farmers we met with told us his quick rule of thumb for keeping tabs on how much water he thinks he’ll get in the spring: he watches the Wolf Creek SNOTEL site. It’s located in the mountains above Pagosa Springs in southern Colorado, and it’s snow up in that region that will fill (or not) the rivers and reservoirs he needs to irrigate his onions. There are a lot fancier forecast tools available that many of us stare at obsessively, but if you want a quick feel for how things are shaping, Wolf Creek’s a nice proxy. The red and grey lines are the median for this time of year, the black and blue lines are the actual – roughly half.

Wolf Creek SNOTEL, courtesy NRCS

Wolf Creek SNOTEL, courtesy NRCS

That’s why, despite a big storm just done (arguably the wettest of the year in New Mexico), I wrote this for Albuquerque’s Sunday morning driveway read:

For the fourth consecutive year, New Mexico water users are watching a skimpy snowpack in the state’s northern mountains and worrying about how much water they will have this spring and summer.

On the state’s largest rivers – the Pecos, the Rio Grande and the San Juan – the thin covering of mountain snow means less water in early forecasts.

“The runoff looks pathetic again,” said Greg Lewis, Pecos River basin manager for the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission.

Key messages:

  • San Juan-Chama supplies, the Colorado River trans-basin diversion that brings water to the middle Rio Grande, is at risk for its second shortfall
  • Santa Fe and Albuquerque, with reserves and diversified supply, will be OK despite San Juan-Chama risk
  • Pecos farmers will be fine, thanks to full reservoirs from two consecutive years with huge late summer rains
  • The Lower Rio Grande, from Elephant Butte Reservoir down, is in a heap of hurt. Agriculture there, especially in the Hatch Valley, is vulnerable.

We’ll have runoff forecast numbers in the coming week, so I’ll come back with something more rigorous then. In the meantime, I guess bookmark Wolf Creek?

My semi-charmed life: Episode II

Isabel Sanchez, my editor for many years at the Albuquerque Journal, gave me this hourglass as a going away present. The joke has been that I really need a new watch, and that I was just nine months away from my 25th anniversary at the Journal, which is traditionally marked by the gift of a nice watch. I would point to my crappy old watch with rubber bands to catch the loose strap, and wonder whether it was worth hanging on another nine months.

my desk, with Isabel's hourglass

my desk, with Isabel’s hourglass

If you are a writer who has worked long and deeply with a good editor, you will understand why my relationship with Isabel was the hardest thing to walk away from. She could see, through the mush of copy turned in on a newspaper’s unforgiving deadlines, what I was trying to say, and helped me say it.

Six years ago, as the newspaper business was reeling from the double whammy of a general economic shitstorm and the simultaneous implosion of our business model, I spent serious time taking an inventory of my skills and options. (Was it too late to learn welding?)

Watching the slide, Michael Hirschorn speculated on what the decline of newspapers meant for people like me:

It will … mean the end of a certain kind of quasi-bohemian urban existence for the thousands of smart middle-class writers, journalists, and public intellectuals who have, until now, lived semi-charmed kinds of lives of the mind.

I am happy that Hirschorn was at least partly wrong, because six years ago I concluded that nothing could be better for me than that semi-charmed life. But there were constraints to the newspaper form – a self-contained 600 or 800 words for a naive audience for whom I had to explain everything from scratch – that increasingly chafed.

newspaper on driveway

newspaper on driveway

It’s a powerful medium. To have editors and designers and printers staying up all night, and a delivery team in the dawn hours to throw my words on 70,000 driveways is a remarkable privilege. I care deeply about water. Welding jokes aside, I looked hard six years ago at options working in government water policy jobs before deciding that there was no better way to help New Mexico sort out the problems posed by aridity and climate change than the seat I had and the 70,000 driveways to which it gave me access.

But there is a more complicated story I need to tell, that cannot fit in 600 or 800 words. I’ve been looking for a way to tell that story off and on for years. When I got serious about using a book to do it, I thought I could still do newspapering on the side. But it eventually became painfully clear that I didn’t have enough brain to do both.

A year and a half ago, University of New Mexico Water Resources Program Director Bob Berrens was kind enough to invite me into the program as an adjunct. As my life began shifting from newspaper to book, Bob offered me a university office and a title (Writer in Residence). There are not one but two libraries within a two minute walk of my office, and while campus parking is exorbitant (something I wholeheartedly support), the 35 minute walk from my home to my new office is delightful, and the bus ride is quicker than my old car commute.

So here’s the plan.

This blog will stay put. It’s evolved from a toy to a sketchbook for the ideas that are going into the book, and as the book work gets more serious this year, the sketchbook is critical. I think best when I write in public, and you all have been an invaluable sounding board over many years. I’ll also be working more with the Water Resources Program students, who are so smart and engaged in figuring out how to contribute to the work of better managing our scarce water.

I’ll be traveling a lot around the Colorado River Basin this spring working on the book – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, the Imperial Valley, west slope Colorado. I’ll give a shout out when I need help – I’m counting on y’all to tell me where I need to go and who I need to talk to.

And I’ve left my watch at home and put Isabel’s hourglass on my desk as a reminder that I still have deadlines, but they’re more fluid now – of my own making and under my own control.

ACLU steps into Gila Case

As near as I can tell, the American Civil Liberties Union has no particular stake in water policy. But the venerable champion of free speech is wading into the rancorous New Mexico debate over the possible diversion of water from the Gila River. Lauren Villagran writes (behind surveywall):

The American Civil Liberties Union said Wednesday it will defend former Interstate Stream Commissioner Norm Gaume in the countersuit launched against him by the agency he once led.

Gaume sued the Interstate Stream Commission in October, alleging the commission violated the Open Meetings Act in its deliberations regarding the future of the Gila River. The commission later countersued, claiming Gaume intended to hold up a decision that had to be made by the end of last month.

“The ACLU feels this is a very dangerous precedent that if allowed to stand could silence New Mexicans and render transparency laws meaningless,” said Daniel Yohalem, a Santa Fe civil rights attorney working with the ACLU to defend Gaume.

More background here on the issue from former Albuquerque Journal reporter John Fleck.

a “literary startup”

I like how Mary Z. Fuka described yesterday’s John Fleck 2.0 launch party – I’m a “literary startup“. I need a clever name with some sort of capital letter in the middle or something. And a logo. I need a logo, right?

Nicole Perez, Robert Browman, the desks next to mine, Dec. 31, 2014

Nicole Perez, Robert Browman, the desks next to mine, Dec. 31, 2014

This morning, the day after I finished up the last stories of a 30-plus year career in daily journalism, feels oddly normal – checking the drought monitor, reservoir levels at Elephant Butte, the latest storm forecast. But I will so very much miss this thing you see to the right.

I had an old can of Spam on my desk at the Albuquerque Journal, which arrived some years ago in some sort of ridiculous press kit trying to get our attention regarding something ridiculous. I’ve no memory of the thing we never covered, but I saved the Spam.

It was, the joke went, my emergency supply. If the shit ever really went down – nuclear war, societal collapse – the Spam would buy me one more day of journalism. It is well past its 2007 “best used by” date, but when we’re talking Armageddon and certain death anyway, so what if the Spam’s a little old?

That the pull of what I’m doing now – writing a book, devoting my whole brain to learning and thinking about the Colorado River – was strong enough to pull me away from those people and that endeavor should tell you a great deal about how excited I am about my new project. Because I love these people – the two in this picture and so many more, the shared adventure of making a newspaper every day. Every day! So hard to leave that.

I left the Spam with Nicole with the confidence that, when the balloon goes up, she’ll be there for you.

Hoover Dam, sinking

Fourteen years after Hoover Dam’s gates were closed, U.S. Geological Survey scientists found earth’s crust beneath the dam had sunk 4 inches because of the weight of its impounded water:

Courtesy USGS

Courtesy USGS


That’s from Geological Survey Circular 346, First Fourteen Years of Lake Mead, 1954 (pdf), ht Kyle House