Obama 19, McCain 4

I completed the eagerly awaited annual non-partisan Fleck Yard Sign Survey today while Lissa and I took a long walk through the surrounding neighborhoods in search of lox, bread products and coffee. The talley:

  • Obama 19
  • McCain 4

The results are in too late for Nate Silver to incorporate in today’s model runs, but they should be included in tomorrow’s results.

Remember Prop. 8

Breeders unite:

[W]hat’s wrong with all the straight folk? Do you have something better do with with your Thursday night than all these gay people? I doubt it – I’m sure they’ve all got fabulous dinner parties to attend or those awesome bars to go on Castro St and I’m sure their tiny dogs need walking, but they were there giving up their Thursday evening to protect your right to marry whoever you choose.

Canadian Economists for a Carbon Tax

Economists sometimes get a bad rap – the unfair belief that they worship at the alter of markets above all else, ignoring real problems as a result. In fact, a great deal of contemporary economics is focused on the opposite – understanding the places where markets fail, and helping craft policies that can make up for the markets’ resulting shortcomings.

That thinking is in evidence in this, an open letter signed by 255 Canadian economists arguing for a carbon tax:

One of the few issues on which most economists agree is the need for public policy to protect the environment. Why so much agreement? Because in the absence of policy, individuals generally don’t take the environmental consequences of their actions into account, and the result is “market failure” and excessive levels of pollution. Environmental degradation diminishes the quality of life for all of us. And without a healthy environment, we can’t sustain a healthy economy.

Their missive is realistic about the fact that there will be costs:

Any effective carbon-reduction policy will necessarily entail changing the way we live and do business. All forms of regulation, taxes, or markets for the exchange of emission permits that have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions will affect the prices of carbon-intensive goods.

They argue for a carbon tax over a cap-and-trade system because of both price certainty on the tax side and unnecessary complextity on the cap-and-trade side:

With a well-designed carbon tax strategy, the tax will be introduced gradually and increased in pre-announced increments until the environmental target is reached . This provides investors with a degree of certainty that is good for business, and allows consumers to make adjustments knowing what is coming. The exact impact of the price increase on the quantity of carbon emitted can be predicted, although with some margin of error. A carbon tax thus involves choosing price certainty but accepting some uncertainty in total carbon emissions.

(h/t Greg Mankiw)

Tucson Water Wars

Tony Davis had a story last week on Tucson’s approach to meeting (or not meeting) the water needs of new developments on its perimeter:

A city water policy that had been described as “trick-or-treat” for new developers has been replaced by a tougher stance in which City Hall has denied service to four projects in unincorporated areas.
The new policy denies water to developments outside existing city service areas. It triggered a recent legal claim for $46.25 million by the developer of a saguaro-rich property in the Tucson Mountain foothills.
The problem here is that, under Arizona law, pretty much anyone can drill a well and pump as much water as they want. They’ve got to pay the full cost of extraction, but there is no scarcity pricing attached, which encourages exploitation of the resource. I was at a conference a year ago in Tucson where I heard stories of people angered by city water rates just drilling their own wells. Makes managing a scarce and dwindling resource difficult.

Hillerman

Before I came here – before I even thought about coming here – I read Hillerman’s Fly on the Wall. It was my first introduction. After I got here, I used The Great Taos Bank Robbery as my formal introduction.

We were a degree of separation apart, and I treasure the fact that the guy read and liked my work – and went out of his way to tell me.

I’ll let Belshaw say it for us all:

When people found out I knew him, they invariably asked, “What’s he like?”


And I would invariably say, “If you had the power to pick your next-door neighbors, you would pick Tony and Marie Hillerman. They are smart, funny, compassionate, unpretentious human beings God gave us as something to strive toward.” ….

He didn’t speak like he wrote. He spoke like what he was — an Oklahoma country boy. I have no memory of any spoken word resembling any of the grace and beauty that flowed from his mind through his fingers and onto the page.

So I asked him: “Where did that come from? Demure little blossoms?”

He shrugged and said, “I don’t know. It was just there.”

Don’t Celebrate That Cheap Oil

David Strahan in the Independent:

A falling oil price has real short-term benefits. Petrol has dropped below £1 per litre for the first time in almost a year; domestic heat and power bills should eventually follow; food prices and inflation should also ease, giving the monetary authorities greater freedom to cut interest rates.

But these benefits may prove fleeting because the collapsing oil price is bad for supply in the medium term. The cost of building new oil production capacity has soared in recent years, and many planned projects that were viable just a couple of months ago are uneconomic today. Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of Total, recently warned that if the oil price settles at $60, “a lot of new projects would be delayed”.

Others put the investment bar much higher, and that means the oil supply could soon fall short of demand, forcing the oil price sharply upwards. A recent research note from Barclays Capital argues that if oil prices stay below $90, large amounts of expected oil production capacity will not be built, and “the world faces a serious supply-side crunch as little as two years away”.

The oil price collapse also threatens renewable energy projects as their viability is judged against the cost of electricity produced from natural gas, which is itself determined by oil.

(h/t TOD)