Perceptions of Drought

A friend of mine began noticing New Mexico’s drought a couple of years ago when he realized he hadn’t needed chains or snow tires on his pickup truck in a while. He lives up a hilly dirt road, where snow can make it tough coming and going. But he realized he hadn’t been having problems in recent years.

I thought of my friend this afternoon when, while at the library, I stumbled by happenstance across an intriguing paper in the journal Climate Research by a Norwegian researcher named Elisabeth Meze-Hausken on how people perceive climate change in northern Ethiopia(1).

(More below the fold.)
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Cooling Greenland

In the wake of the release of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, arguing that anthropogenic warming is heating up the arctic faster than expected and faster than other parts of the globe, a familiar counter-argument has resurfaced – that Greenland is actually getting colder. Given the currency of the argument (it was prominently feature in a Tech Central Station-sponsored letter signed by a group of climate scientists to Sen. John McCain, R-AZ), it’s worth reviewing a rather straightforward bit of Global Climate Science 101:

The anthropogenic warming hypothesis does not predict the same sort of warming everywhere. The hypothesis predicts that some places would warm a lot, some less, some might even cool. That’s why “global climate change” is a more accurate way of describing it. From the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:


Arctic warming map

You can see how citing Greenland’s cooling provides something of a misleading picture of the overall situation.

Swishy Shark

The American Family Association is warning its members away from the animated Shark Tale. Apparently there’s a vegetarian shark whose “mannerisms and voice tend toward the effeminate.” This shark also dresses as a dolphin. But that’s not the worst part. Oh no. Before the film is over, the cross-dressing vegetarian shark’s macho father comes to accept him. “I love you son,” the dad says, “no matter what you eat or how you dress.” Quel horreur! A cross-dressing vegetarian shark whose dad loves him!

“Shark Tale,” the AFA’s Ed Vitagliano writes, “comes far too close to taking a bite out of traditional moral and spiritual beliefs.”

You can’t make up stuff this good. (Hat tip Andrew Sullivan.)

Not a Missing Link

Carl Zimmer points out the error in our science journalism ways when we try to coax scientists to say their latest apish find is a “missing link”:

Now, if you learned about human origins 50 years ago, you might well have read things by scientists referring to a missing link in our evolution. The great paleoanthropologist Robert Broom even published a book in 1951 called Finding the Missing Link. But this was a time when so few fossils were known from human evolution that many researchers thought that our ancestry was pretty much linear until you got back to our common ancestor with other living apes. But fifty years later, it’s abundantly clear now that human evolution has produced many branches, all but one of which have ended in extinction. Some are close to our own ancestry, others are further away. Paleoanthropologists don’t get excited about a fossil because they think they’ve found the missing link (whatever that is), but because a fossil can show how early a trait such as a big brain evolved, and sometimes can even reveal traits that have evolved independently several times in evolution. That’s what gets them fired up about Pierolapithecus catalaunicus. So why shouldn’t journalists get fired up as well, rather than trotting out old cliches?

(That’s the award-winning Carl Zimmer, whose writing is so gentle and effortless that when you read him you feel like you’re sitting down for a cup of coffee with an old friend. Well deserved.)

When Science Gets Political

The journalist’s instinct, as Chris Mooney noted in his recent CJR piece, is to provide balance by quoting someone from each side of a debate. But this has the potential to result in a distortion if, as for example in the case of evolution and creationism/intelligent design, one side is representative of the mainstream of responsible science and the other side is representative of a fringe outlier.

When you have two relatively balanced political forces, as when we’re moving from the science to the policy response, however, the “one from each side” model is probably a responsible way to handle the thing. But what of the case where we’ve moved into the political/policy arena, and we then call on the politicians to explain the science?

Earlier Tuesday, Sen. John McCain called on President Bush to do more to fight global warming. McCain, R-Ariz., pointed to a study on rising Arctic temperatures as further evidence that changes in the earth’s climate aren’t being addressed seriously enough.

“Some of us believe that the accumulation of knowledge argues that we act, rather than continue to accumulate knowledge,” McCain said in criticizing the Bush administration’s climate strategy as research-heavy. Until then, McCain had been playing down his policy differences with Bush to support the president’s re-election.

McCain said the study “clearly demonstrates that climate change is real and has far-reaching implications for society.”

Not so, said Sen. James Inhofe, chairman of the environment committee, who has described global warming as a hoax. In a statement, Inhofe called the study yet another scare tactic.

“Alarmists continue to pursue doomsday scenarios about global warming, but without releasing the basis for their claims,” said Inhofe, R-Okla.

I think we’re back to an unfortunate “one from each side” formulation here, with McCain simply acting as the surrogate for the mainstream scientific view and Inhofe as the surrogate for the outlier. It’d be different if each was arguing the political/policy response, but they’re not. I think the author of this story should have applied “the Mooney test.”

But it’s a problem because of the underlying nature of the debate. As Daniel Sarewitz argues, the scientific contention allows each side to try to grab the high ground in the scientific debate, and we never end up getting to the politics/policy:

Science supplies contesting parties with their own bodies of relevant, legitimated facts about nature, chosen in part because they help make sense of, and are made sensible by, particular interests and normative frameworks.

As a result, journalists are frequently left with nothing to do but cover McCain/Inhofe-style debates over the science itself.

The Whale and the Supercomputer

Just finished Charles Wohlforth’s The Whale and the Supercomputer, a terrific read on a number of levels.

It is the story of climate change from the point of view of the people along the arctic who are living in its midst, woven with the research community trying to understand climate change as current fact and future implication.

Wohlforth straddles well the worlds of the native whalers, the global climate modelers and the armies of climate researchers trying to gather the data needed to stitch the whole climate story together.

To me, the most interesting thing was the way, like Norman Maclean in Young Men and Fire, Wohlforth leads us along on his own journey to understand and explain.

There’s a marvelous moment when he’s trying to sort out the complexities of federal funding for arctic research – Wohlforth frankly admits, “I didn’t hope to know the truth of the matter. As a machine for spending money, Washington was as complex and inscrutable as an ecological system.” Intellectual humility – a characteristic to be prized.

Ebert’s Peak

Doing some reading this week for a piece about the inevitable decline in the availability of oil supplies, I ran across a lot of interesting literature in geophysics and energy economics suggesting the same line of argument applies to a wide range of societal goods. This has been widely discussed with respect to coal and natural gas as well, for example.

But perhaps the most interesting example I found was a little-known paper written in the early 1970s by a then-graduate student in film studies named Roger Ebert. Ebert, now famous as the film critic for the Chicago Sun-Times, argued that the supply of easy-to-make, quality films would reach an apex, leaving only lower-quality movies that could only be produced at significantly higher cost.


Ebert's Peak graph

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Fumento watch

Michael Fumento has shown up again on the radar, this time on the stem cell debate, once again basing one of his op-ed pieces on a misprepresentation.

In it, Fumento accuses Chris Mooney of making “the illogical argument that since some people prefer adult stem cells for non-scientific reasons, they must therefore have little scientific value.” Once again, thanks to the Internet, you can read Mooney’s Washington Monthly piece yourself and decided whether Fumento has accurately characterized Mooney’s argument. Hint: think straw man. Mooney argues that opponents of embryonic stem cell research have improperly hyped adult stem cells as an alternative. But Mooney never argues that adult stem cells “have little scientific value.” Read it for yourself.