The Problem of Hindsight

Great comment on an Arnold Kling post on the dangers of looking back to see who successfully predicted this mess:

People talking about a bubble is not the same thing as “knowing” there is a bubble…. Just as with the stories about pre-9/11 warnings of a terrorist attack, there are always those issuing warnings of one sort or another. The hard part is knowing when such warnings should be heeded and when they should be ignored.

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