James Annan argues that Roger and I are both wrong in our discussion of how to properly think about James Hansens 2006 draft paper discussing the possibility of “super El Nino”: It’s OK to hold Hansen to his 2006 El Nino forecast. (Fleck wrong.) A careful reading of that forecast suggests Hansen got it right. …
Roger Pielke Jr. has a bit of an odd post up today taking James Hansen to task for predicting a “super El Niño” in 2006, which did not come to pass. Here’s Roger: I’ve always thought that predictions made should not be forgotten, but evaluated and learned from. The “prediction” in question, which I wrote …
Continue reading ‘What Did Hansen Predict, and When Did He Predict It?’ »
Via Michael Campana, a remarkable graph:
Shaun McKinnon had an item today on the push in the Arizona legislature to back away from the Western Climate Initiative: A group of state legislators has started the process of undoing former Gov. Janet Napolitano’s climate change initiatives and their chances of success are probably good. A bill has been introduced in the Senate …
Continue reading ‘Is the Push for Regional Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Breaking Down?’ »
The black swans of climate change, national security, the arctic. (ad gated)
Some musings on the new Pew poll numbers about public attitudes toward environmental issues etc. (Comments closed here. Comment over there.)
Western warming killing trees.
Ryan Avent: I have become increasingly pessimistic about our ability to address the climate change crisis. The dynamics are simply deadly — the most dangerous effects begin arriving after it’s too late to do anything about them — which leaves as our great hope the chance that a strong enough intellectual argument can be made …
Continue reading ‘On the Possibility of Climate Change Action’ »
Talking dinosaurs and the false balance problem.
My friend Mark Boslough presented a fascinating analysis last month at AGU comparing the risks of climate change to big rocks from space hitting Earth: One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of anthropogenic climate change is to estimate the long-term worldwide fatality rate. For asteroids, the average …
Continue reading ‘Quantifying and Thinking About Climate Risk’ »