Tradeoffs

This morning’s operations missive from the federal-state-local Middle Rio Grande operations group (by “Middle” here we mean central New Mexico) notes a release of ~100 cubic feet per second of imported San Juan-Chama Project water for environmental flows, an effort to help the struggling Rio Grande silvery minnow. SJC water is removed from the Colorado …

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Brad Udall on Upper Colorado River Basin climate change risk

Colorado State University’s Brad Udall has been doing some really interesting thinking about how to conceptualize and communicate climate change risk to water supplies in the Colorado River Basin. Shown above (and shared with permission) is one of Brad’s “selected averages” graphs. The horizontal lines show the average river flow value for a period of …

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Now out in paperback (and perhaps timely given the chaos?): Science Be Dammed – How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado River

Our friends at the University of Arizona Press have kindly printed a bunch of new copies of our book Science Be Dammed, this time in paperback so it’s cheaper! Eric and I did a fun Q&A with Abby Mogollon at the press to accompany this second launch: Q: Why did you embark on this project? …

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Sources of Controversy in the Law of the River – Larry MacDonnell

As we lumber toward a renegotiation of the operating rules on the Colorado River, one of the challenges folks in basin management face is the differing understandings of the Law of the River. There’s stuff we all know, or think we know, or stuff Lower Basin folks think they know that Upper Basin people may …

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Is the Colorado River “Stress Test” stressful enough?

By Brad Udall and John Fleck Earlier this year, we argued in a Science magazine editorial that Colorado River forecasting must take the growing risk of climate change seriously. The latest five-year projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation offer a practical example of the challenge. Published July 8 (see here and here) with an …

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Walking and chewing gum: mixing crisis narratives and messages of optimism

Not gonna lie – watching Colorado River reservoirs decline so precipitously has been painful. But it is important to cultivate optimism, and there is, in fact, reason to be hopeful about our ability to deal with the challenges. That’s the message the University of Arizona’s Bonnie Colby and I shared in a recent conversation with …

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Not just Mead: Powell will soon drop to the lowest level since filling in the 1960s

While the historic June 15 low for Lake Mead has drawn headlines – “its lowest level on record since the reservoir was filled in the 1930” – we’re about to hit a similar milestone upstream at Lake Powell that has received less attention, but may in fact be more important. It was co-author Eric Kuhn …

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Brad Udall: Second-worst Powell inflows in more than half a century

Brad Udall on twitter yesterday ran through a striking series of graphs of the current state of the Colorado River. With his permission, I’m posting them here along with a slightly polished version of his accompanying commentary. Some key points that grabbed my attention: Second-lowest Powell inflow in a period of record we use dating …

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