Stuff Journalists Do On a Friday When No One’s Around to Answer Our Questions Posted by jfleck on 26 December 2008, 6:36 pm We look up data and muse:
I am not an economist, but I did click through. As a statistician who deals in biology where the statistics are decidedly not Gaussian, I want to look at the raw data– who actually did the hiring and why?
I have not yet found this data at the FRED site.
My questions include things like:
Has the distribution of jobs being filled changed in the last year?
Are companies hiring more in order to close down sites?
What is the delay between jobs filled and national recession?
One study in New Mexico suggests that the delay for oil exploration is five years between wanting to get a pump for oil in the ground and actually getting the pump in the ground.
The missing raw data and the small size in absolute number of jobs added makes it hard for me to know what this data means, if anything, and whether it is predictive of jobs in this industry in the next quarter much less the next year.
The numbers feel like a sum of apples, oranges, and bananas when what is important is to know each individual sum not just how many fruits there are. In this analogy, apples are long term jobs while bananas are short term jobs that go away quickly.
I would appreciate a breakdown of what goes into the numbers in the graph.