Antelope Island and the notion of climate variability

On a quick weekend dash to Ogden earlier this month, I squeezed an hour out of my return trip to the Salt Lake City airport to make the drive out the causeway across the Great Salt Lake to Antelope Island. When G.K. Gilbert, under the direction of John Wesley Powell, was trying to sort out …

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stuff I wrote elsewhere: tree rings, climate change and our disappearing forests

When I wrote The Tree Rings’ Tale, its organizational premise was that tree rings are storytellers. And how. Park Williams latest research, which I featured in this morning’s Albuquerque Journal, combines tree ring records for the southwestern United States with contemporary climate data, fire data, tree mortality data and future modeling results to tell a …

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a sketchy winter forecast

In the midst of reading Nate Silver’s book, I felt like I ought to say something nuanced about the seasonal forecast that came out this morning: In this morning’s briefing, the forecasters were careful to explain that they’re not making predictions here, but rather forecasting odds – “probabilistic” in the jargon: “These impacts are not …

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A longstanding tradition in western water – getting someone else to pick up the tab

Here in the arid West, land of the pioneer spirit and the rugged individual, we have a longstanding tradition of sticking someone else with the bill for our water projects. The carefully constructed edifice that is Law of the (Colorado) River is complex set of legal and institutional deals among the basin’s water users built …

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The hidden dangers of water planning

Regional water planning, it turns out, is the first step toward One World Government: The Integrated Regional Water Management Plan may sound harmless, but it is part of this “regionalization” program. Control of water on rural lands will transfer from landowners to government control agents or “water masters,” who will begin their work imposing limits …

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Another look at increasing aridity under climate change in the West

At the risk of a “dog bits man” blog post, yet another analysis has concluded that droughts in the southwestern United States are likely to be worse, and rivers drier, as a result of rising greenhouse gases. This time, it’s the Verde in Arizona, part of the watershed that feeds the greater Phoenix area: Results …

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Coping with drought – a question of marginal costs

One of the problems with droughts is that, eventually, they end. That is by definition, because “drought” is the dry part of the range of variability for a given place. When you’re in one, the marginal value of water (and therefore marginal cost you’re willing to pay) is high. When you come out of it? …

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