a sketchy winter forecast

In the midst of reading Nate Silver’s book, I felt like I ought to say something nuanced about the seasonal forecast that came out this morning: In this morning’s briefing, the forecasters were careful to explain that they’re not making predictions here, but rather forecasting odds – “probabilistic” in the jargon: “These impacts are not …

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A longstanding tradition in western water – getting someone else to pick up the tab

Here in the arid West, land of the pioneer spirit and the rugged individual, we have a longstanding tradition of sticking someone else with the bill for our water projects. The carefully constructed edifice that is Law of the (Colorado) River is complex set of legal and institutional deals among the basin’s water users built …

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The hidden dangers of water planning

Regional water planning, it turns out, is the first step toward One World Government: The Integrated Regional Water Management Plan may sound harmless, but it is part of this “regionalization” program. Control of water on rural lands will transfer from landowners to government control agents or “water masters,” who will begin their work imposing limits …

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Another look at increasing aridity under climate change in the West

At the risk of a “dog bits man” blog post, yet another analysis has concluded that droughts in the southwestern United States are likely to be worse, and rivers drier, as a result of rising greenhouse gases. This time, it’s the Verde in Arizona, part of the watershed that feeds the greater Phoenix area: Results …

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Coping with drought – a question of marginal costs

One of the problems with droughts is that, eventually, they end. That is by definition, because “drought” is the dry part of the range of variability for a given place. When you’re in one, the marginal value of water (and therefore marginal cost you’re willing to pay) is high. When you come out of it? …

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Stuff I wrote elsewhere: Happy New Water Year!

The typical “out with the old” etc. celebrations don’t have much resonance as New Mexico stares down a new water year. From the morning paper: New Mexico faces three problems in the new water year. The first problem is the winter forecast itself. There were signs of an El Niño forming, a climate pattern driven …

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Does water really flow uphill toward money?

There’s a truism in water politics and policy in the western United States that “water flows uphill to money”. But is it correct? I ran across it most recently in an excellent editorial in the Salt Lake Tribune regarding the Southern Nevada Water Authority’s proposal to build a pipeline to rural Nevada, along the Utah …

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