A guest post by David Rosenberg. David E. Rosenberg Utah State University | david.rosenberg@usu.edu | @WaterModeler The term buy-and-dry plays to the fears of farm and ranch communities. Wealthy urban water providers buy up water rights, dry out farms and ranches, encourage people to retire to Hawaii or other locales, and export the purchased water …
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Preparing for climate change on the Colorado River is hard. But we will make it harder, and narrow the scope of our options for dealing with it, if we don’t incorporate realistic flow reduction scenarios in our planning efforts. That’s the thrust of an editorial Brad Udall and I have in this week’s issue of …
Continue reading ‘Taking climate change seriously on the Colorado River: a practical step’ »
The latest US Bureau of Reclamation “24-month study” – the monthly update to projected reservoir storage on the Colorado River – shows the bottom dropping out of Lake Powell inflows after a starkly dry April. With inflows down a million acre feet from the April version of the study, the Bureau is now projecting total …
Following what NRCS forecaster Angus Goodbody describes as “an exceptionally dry April”, our anticipated Rio Grande runoff into New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande valley (meaning the flow at the Otowi gauge) is down 100,000 acre feet from a month ago. That’s about 44 percent of the 30-year mean. Importantly, April was really our last chance …
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Ima give this a fancy sciency-sounding patina: I walked a transect today across the ribbon of green the Rio Grande provides through the heart of Albuquerque. I’m trying to think through what I have come to understand as the fundamental choice we face as climate change depletes the river. We will have less green: Which …
tl;dr I’m stepping down as director of the UNM Water Resources Program at the end of summer semester to write another book. longer When I was happily toiling those many years as an inkstained wretch, I had secret fantasies of leaving newspaper work to spend my waning years on the campus of the University of …
Continue reading ‘The next steps in “my semi-charmed life of the mind”’ »
It’s been more than a year since I’ve been able to update my Lake Mead bathtub ring pictures, but perhaps this graph, updated with the new Bureau of Reclamation projects into fall 2022, will help us visualize what we’re up against.
By Eric Kuhn The release of last week’s Bureau of Reclamation 24-month study felt like very bad news for the Colorado River (See Tony Davis for details.). But a careful reading of the numbers, and an understanding of the process through which they are developed, suggests things are likely even worse than the top-line numbers …
Continue reading ‘The April 2021 24-Month Study was a Shocker, but is it too Optimistic?’ »
From my conversation last week with Drew Kann at CNN: To Fleck, all of this signals that the reduced flows in recent years are likely not an aberration, but rather a glimpse of the challenges posed by a hotter, drier climate. “We’re now seeing the model for what the future of Colorado River Basin water …
I’m choosing my words carefully here. The “likely” in this blog’s post’s title means “based on my analysis of the Bureau of Reclamation’s current ‘most probable forecast’ Colorado River water supply model runs.” The Bureau’s current “most probable” modeling suggests that in both 2022 and 2023, the annual release from Lake Powell will only be …
Continue reading ‘Lake Mead likely to drop below elevation 1,040 by late 2023’ »