El Nino and the Economy
Via David Appell, a fascinating paper about El Nino and the U.S. economy:
While ENSO may briefly influence the performance of particular sectors of the economy in particular regions, as documented by the previous literature, such locally-important effects vanish into the noise surrounding macroeconomic trends in an economy as large and complex as that of the U.S.
Stuff I Wrote Elsewhere: Quagga Mussel Edition
Writing About Lee’s Ferry
Originally uploaded by heinemanfleck.
Sitting at home working on a chilly Saturday, this photo from a trip in 2005 reminds me that I’d rather be at Lee’s Ferry than sitting home writing about it. But it’s a pretty interesting place, so writing about Lee’s Ferry is a good close second. Sadly, since this is a book you’ll have to wait a bit to read what I have to say. In the meantime, close your eyes tight, imagine this picture and repeat those three magic words:
“John Wesley Powell. John Wesley Powell. John Wesley Powell.”
Those Baffling Oil Prices
Oil prices have dropped a bit of late. Spot prices for crude are down ten bucks from their peak two weeks ago. One reason? The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, according to This Week in Petroleum:
Still another factor behind the recent decline in oil prices is a lessening of geopolitical tensions. Following the release of the latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which stated with moderate confidence that Iran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, oil market analysts have been less concerned about a possible disruption to Iranian oil exports in the near future.
On Voluntary Conservation
From North Carolina, word that residents are not really all that altruistic and require some sort of pricing structure to help them understand that they’re in a frickin’ drought:
Less than two months ago, Gov. Mike Easley urged all North Carolina communities to reduce water consumption by 50 percent. After showing marked declines in the weeks immediately after the governor’s challenge, Triangle utilities are now seeing the limits of short-term conservation measures.
“We have gotten most of the stuff that can be gotten by behavior change,” said Bill Holman, a senior fellow at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions. “If we’re going to make additional gains, it’s going to involve policy, pricing and technology.”
(via John Whitehead)
Powell party, 1871
I recently discovered the USGS’s wonderful photo archive, which (among many other things) has a huge collection of the photography from the second John Wesley Powell survey of the Grand Canyon. Powell quote of the day:
Many droughts will occur. Many seasons in a long series will be fruitless.
Is India’s Monsoon Declining?
From K. V. Ramesh and P. Goswami last week in Geophysical Research Letters, evidence that India’s monsoon, bringer of the rains to feed the farmers who feed the residents of one of the world’s largest nations, may be in decline:
We show here, based on an analysis of daily gridded observed rainfall data for the period 1951–2003, that there are decreasing trends in both early and late monsoon rainfall and number of rainy days, implying a shorter monsoon over India….
The results emphasize need for careful regional analysis in drawing conclusions regarding agro-ecological sustainability in a changing climate.
Waalpi, Circa 1947
Originally uploaded by heinemanfleck.
This is from one of Dad’s old sketchbooks, which he gave me recently. It is not possible to adequately describe the importance his art has for me. It’s my whole visual language – the smell of oil paint and those remarkable paintings I stared at as a child, before I had words and experience to describe and understand what I was seeing.
I’ve long been interested in those moments when everything changes, and this sketchbook is a remarkable document in Dad’s artistic evolution. He was a Pennsylvania boy who saw The West as a young soldier and returned after the war. This sketchbook in part documents that return, and the resulting transition from an artist interested in the foreground to the artist I grew up with, interested in the great spaces of the West and the colors that inhabit them. To see it happening first hand its to have the privilege of traveling back to a time before I was born and glimpsing Dad’s artistic mind.
The Koreas, From Space
Seldom has a satellite image conveyed quite so much useful information quite so easily:
From Yale Simkin, in the comments at the Arms Control Wonk. That’s one approach, I guess, to energy conservation.