Adaptation and Mitigation

There’s an exchange over at Prometheus that nicely illustrates the fundamentally linear face of the public climate debate, as so eloquently characterized by Andrew Revkin’s “pushmi-pullyu” metaphor.

The example at hand is the Prins and Rayner paper in Nature last month laying out, in part, the argument for a fuller integration of adapation to climate change into the debate. At the risk of putting words into his mouth, Prins and Rayner are, I think, what David Roberts might characterize as part of the “extraordinarily complex” and multi-faceted face of the actual climate debate, in which people come down in different places on different questions. Here you have people who clearly think climate change is a serious problem, that greenhouse gas reductions are necessary, but that the present approach to achieving them is a failure and that, in the process, an ossified political debate has arisen that excludes the importance of adaptation to that portion of climate change which is inevitable.

Some people, at one end of the traditional linear structure of the debate, use adaptation as an argument against greenhouse gas reductions. People should adapt to climate change, the argument goes, rather than undertaking the economic expense of curbing greenhouse gas emissions. That is most explicitly not what Prins and Rayner are doing here.

Here’s what happens, then, when people like Prins and Rayner attempt to jump off the line, expressing a view that does not fit along the linear dichotomy. People try to push them back on the line!

In the comments to the Prometheus blog post above, John Quiggin immediately assumes that, by arguing for adaptation, they must be arguing against greenhouse gas reductions (“mitigation,” in the increasingly tortured argot of the debate): The adaptation argument is a problem, Quiggin argues, “when used to oppose action by rich countries to reduce their own emissions, and thereby the risk of even worse disasters like this in the future.” In fact, Prins and Rayner are making no such argument: “Mitigation and adaptation must go hand in hand,” they wrote.

But so ingrained is the linear nature of this debate that people like Quiggin seem bound and determined to push anyone who diverges back onto the path.

It’s worth noting that David Roberts has a nice counter-example to this dynamic in his discussion of Prins and Rayner. His piece recognizes the multi-dimensional nature of the issues being raised by Prins and Rayner rather than trying to shove them back into the linear model. Credit where credit is due, even if the guy does annoy the hell out of me sometimes.

Why Bother With Science?

The Kentucky legislature held a hearing the other day about global warming. The featured speakers: James Taylor of the Heartland Institute and the ubiquitous Lord Monckton:

Before the hearing, Gooch said he called the Heartland Institute once he decided to address global warming and asked for any skeptical experts it might send. Scientists weren’t necessary, he said.

“Well, I mean, where are we going to get scientists?” Gooch asked. “We’re limited here in Kentucky to what we can do. I don’t know how we’d necessarily get scientists to come here.”

That certainly simplifies the discussion. (Hat tip to Malcolm, who is from Australia, where the seem to have scientists.)

desert haiku

I’ve always loved the minimalism of the desert. Like everything, it’s more complicated than you think, but it’s easier in the desert to see how the pieces fit together. Nora captures that brilliantly in a little bit of business from her novel that she posted on her blog:

“When I was growing up, I read a lot of haiku. I don’t know if you know them.”

“Yeah, I’ve read a few,” he said, a little amused that an eighteen year old would think of herself as already grown up.

“They’re small, minimal. Only what’s totally necessary is there. It’s the same thing with the desert. Each plant is a small brushstroke of God’s on a minimalist canvas. It’s not that there’s less life, it’s just the difference between a flower bouquet that anyone can make and an ikebana.”

A Little Help Please With A Conversion?

Can one of my European readers help with a currency conversion? How does Euros per MWh translate into dollars per ton of carbon? The context:

RWE will proceed with the construction of two, 1,530 MW coal-fired plants in Germany, believing that the units will make money even if carbon dioxide costs of up to Eur30.00/MWh are included, company CEO Harry Roels said in a conference call late Wednesday.

I have no idea if this is good news or not.

In Defense of Andrew Revkin

I was, by coincidence, in the midst of reading Bjorn Lomborg’s book this week when Andrew Revkin’s New York Times piece on the sloppy center came out. There is much to like about the book, and much to disagree with (more on that later, when I’ve finished it). But the most important thing is that you’ve got someone here who embraces mainstream science, but comes up with a different policy response. Ditto Newt Gingrich, who has some interesting comments in the videos linked near the bottom of Revkin’s story.

The criticism of Revkin’s piece has been predictable. But I think he’s doing an extraordinarily valuable service here. Journalism gravitates toward the extremes, the loudest voices of the members of the climate wars tribe. In capturing the headlines, that creates this false picture in the public mind, I think, of the nature of the climate debate. It is an orthogonal example to the way Revkin’s “tyranny of the news peg” is typically used, but it’s just as relevant in this case. On the right, journalists look for people who question the science. On the left, we look for people who proclaim a coming doom. The result is a paralyzed discourse, which Revkin delightfully describes as “a world where energy and environmental policies are still forged mainly in the same way Doctor Dolittle’s two-headed pushmi-pullyu walked. (It didn’t move much.)” (If you’re reading, Andy, 10 points for that one!)

That views other than the typical caricatures exist and are worth hearing seems entirely much for those entrenched in the tribal warfare. Predictably, for example, David Roberts went apeshit. It’s much easier to poke holes in Chris Horner’s embarassing repetition of the global cooling myth, or criticize Al Gore’s use of Hurricane Katrina in his movie. But that’s becoming a pretty tired and unproductive sort of discussion.

Disaster News Network

Sometimes the line between Onion and Not Onion is a bit confusing. But the Disaster News Network is apparently not a joke. Some headlines:

Blog categories include (really, I am not making this up) “animals in disasters”. Did you know that May 12 was National Animal Disaster Preparedness Day? I thought not. You need to subscribe to their podcast, and then you won’t miss it next year.